Zelensky-Trump-Vance Brawl, Arab League Summit Set to Kick Off, European Leaders Convene in London, Bitcoin Falls Amid U.S. Tariff Concerns, China’s Parliamentary 'Two Sessions' Underway, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Intelligence Weekly Briefing
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. In this issue, we examine key geopolitical events shaping the defense, energy, and DeFi markets, providing a deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
High-Impact Updates
Effective Tuesday, March 4, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese goods, following President Trump’s confirmation of the move due to concerns over fentanyl and drug trafficking. This action is expected to destabilize approximately $2 trillion in annual North American trade, raising the risk of a broader trade conflict.
China’s annual parliamentary sessions will commence on March 4 and 5, setting the agenda for the country’s 2025 economic priorities. The National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which serve as political advisory bodies under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), are set to convene as Chinese leaders present the Government’s Work Report outlining the legislative agenda for the year. The report is expected to focus heavily on economics, defense, and foreign relations, particularly the escalating trade war with the U.S. Countermeasures to U.S. tariffs, especially regarding trade and foreign investment, are anticipated. The sessions typically last a week and will continue until March 11.
This comes as China released a draft regulation/Action Plan on February 19 proposing that only large state-owned groups be allowed to mine, smelt, or separate rare earth minerals, effectively prohibiting non-state companies from these activities.
An emergency Arab League Summit will be held in Cairo on March 4, to address Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan. Arab leaders aim to present a unified diplomatic response, though internal divisions could weaken their position. Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has been invited to attend.
On March 2, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy for a European Summit in London, pledging £1.6 billion in export finance for air-defense missiles to Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban criticized the move as dangerous and a continuation of the war, rather than seeking peace.
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is scheduled to visit Beijing from March 17-19 to revive the UK-China Energy Dialogue.
President Milei is in negotiations with the IMF to stabilize Argentina’s inflation and exchange rate system, replenish hard currency reserves, and reduce debt. The outcome could either boost investor confidence or deepen the financial crisis. He is also seeking legislative support for the expected IMF package, suggesting the deal is nearing completion.
S&P has upgraded Portugal’s credit rating to ‘A’ from ‘A-’, citing financial resilience, fiscal prudence, and debt reduction. However, broader risks to European growth persist, particularly with U.S.-EU trade tensions and the US expected imposition of 20% tariffs on the EU.
The SEC has closed its investigation into Uniswap Labs, developer of Ethereum’s largest decentralized trading platform, with no enforcement action. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen 25% from its peak due to market fears over U.S. tariff threats and global instability.
On March 3, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna signed an order imposing an entry ban on 55 additional Georgian officials, including prosecutors, judges, police officials, police commissioners, platform creators, and members of parliament, over human rights abuses against protesters during last year’s demonstrations following the controversial parliamentary election and the government's decision to postpone the European Union accession process until the end of 2028.
On February 23, U.S. CENTCOM carried out a precision airstrike in Syria, killing senior Al-Qaeda leader Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay.
On February 28, a heated exchange occurred in the Oval Office between Zelensky and Trump-Vance, with Zelensky accusing the U.S. of failing to provide security guarantees and warning that Russia is closing in on the U.S. Trump and Vance criticized Zelensky for his disrespectful tone, leading to an argument before the press. Zelensky was escorted out without the planned dinner, press conference, and the minerals deal being signed, sparking speculation about significant damage to U.S.-Ukraine relations. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has even suggested Zelensky’s resignation as a way to repair ties.
Recap
Political risks (echoed by aid cuts, increasing calls for sanctions, and diplomatic fallouts) appear to be rising quickly and becoming more complicated in Rwanda due to speculations over its alleged support for the Congolese rebel group M23. Is the Central African state at risk of losing its coveted status as a sought-after investment destination?
Is Rwanda On the Cusp of Becoming a Political Pariah?
Since the early January 2025 breakthroughs in the M23 guerilla operations in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which led to the fall of the cities of Goma and Bukavu, there has been a global outcry calling for sanctions against Rwanda for its alleged backing of the rebel movement
On February 25, President Donald Trump announced the Trump ‘Gold Card’, a $5 million residency permit set to launch by March 11, intended to replace the EB-5 immigrant investor visa program.
US Citizenship Up for Sale? How Viable Is the Trump 'Gold Card'?
US President Donald Trump has recently dominated global news, with the United States, by far, contributing the most to the current geopolitical uncertainty. On February 24, the president met with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is scheduled to meet UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on
