Good Morning!
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence.
Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.
High Impact Situational Updates
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.
Poland’s constitutional crisis escalated over the weekend, with the president and prime minister at loggerheads over the future of the Constitutional Tribunal.
Americans vote tomorrow in the midterm elections. Democrats are expected to take control of the House. The Senate race remains extremely close to predict, with recent polls showing razor-thin margins in several key races. The economy, healthcare and the war with Iran are among voters’ leading concerns.
Iranian and Qatari negotiators held a third consecutive day of talks in Doha on Sunday. Trump has said there will be no strike before the midterms, but has not ruled out military action afterwards. Brent ended October at a six-month high, although prices are falling this morning amid renewed hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.
France is heading into a union-called general strike on Thursday, November 5, following three consecutive weekends of protests over the cost of living and school conditions.
China’s Communist Party concluded its fifth plenum last Thursday, with a record 33 expulsions, the lowest attendance of Xi Jinping’s leadership and the surprise promotion of a general to the Politburo. The 21st Party Congress is scheduled for the second half of 2027.
Situation this morning. The row over Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal continues to send shockwaves across the EU. Last weekend, Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska ordered a one-month suspension of Tribunal President Bogdan Święczkowski and Vice-President Bartłomiej Sochański, and said she would convene a General Assembly of judges on November 3.
Her claim to run the court rests on her overall length of judicial service, rather than the time she has served at the Tribunal, which is why many lawyers question her authority to act. Police said they were deployed after she warned of possible threats to judges and staff, adding that they secured the grounds without entering the building. The Tribunal’s own account on X described the move as an unlawful takeover.
The president reacted immediately. Karol Nawrocki turned his plane around while returning from a trip to Senegal and went straight to the court. Video from the entrance shows him pushing past Korwin-Piotrowska and telling the judges inside