US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs. What Happens Now?
Grinfi Political Risk Brief
Good Morning!
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.
The Supreme Court delivered a historic blow to Trump’s tariff agenda, a cornerstone of his economic policy.
In a 6-3 ruling on February 20, the Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. This decision nullifies the sweeping “Liberation Day” duties and reciprocal levies on China, Canada, and Mexico. More than $175 billion in tariff collections are now at risk of refund. Markets rallied on the decision. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%. The President criticized the court’s decision, labelled the justices “fools and lapdogs of foreign interests,” and subsequently announced a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
At the same time, opinions from concurring justices showed they were primarily concerned about the President usurping the power of Congress to levy taxes (i.e. the twin fears of the violation of the separation of power and that of the unchecked imperial presidency).
Here is an extract from Justice Gorsuch’s argument:
Meanwhile, Trump earlier in the week convened the Board of Peace in Washington with $17 billion pledged for Gaza. Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Geneva stalled after Kyiv accused Moscow of dragging out negotiations. US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva produced agreement on “guiding principles” but no deal, as two carrier strike groups patrol nearby waters.
“Stay in your lane!”
In Europe, Macron told Meloni to “stay in her own lane” after the Italian PM called