US and China 'Dogfighting' in Space? Rwanda Cuts Ties with Belgium, Nigerian President Suspends Rivers State Governor & Assembly, Turkey's Opposition Leader Arrest Plunges Markets, and More
Mid Week Chaos, Mid Week Opportunities
Hey Grinfi Navigators!
A lot of drama is unfolding on the geopolitical scene right now. The arrest of Istanbul’s mayor and key opposition leader in Turkey, Ekrem İmamoğlu, today seems to have left markets scrambling. Political leaders are also on edge. Putin’s tentative and partial acceptance of the 30-day ceasefire agreement, particularly halting attacks on energy and infrastructure following a phone call with Trump, along with skepticism over the role and strength of the Starmer-Macron-led 'Coalition of the Willing' in support of Ukraine against Russia, have added more layers of hopeful uncertainty. In the US, Chief Justice Roberts’ open rebuke of Trump for insinuating the impeachment of a district judge over a judicial ruling has triggered a media frenzy. Meanwhile, news of an apparent agreement between the Congolese and Rwandan leaders in Qatar, following failed mediation earlier this week by Angola, has provided some relief.
It’s best to describe the environment as both grim and galvanizing, but our core mission remains unchanged: turning uncertainty into opportunity for you, leveraging geostrategic and politico-economic shifts to help you make smarter, more informed decisions.
Mid-week chaos, but big mid-week opportunities!
But first, a bit of humor 😄 to lighten what appears to be another tough week!
"The world has enough for everyone’s need, but not for everyone’s greed."
Hugo Chavez, "Address to the United Nations General Assembly." Speech delivered at the United Nations General Assembly, New York, NY, September 20, 2006.
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, and Latvia Withdraw from Ottawa Mine Ban Treaty
On March 18, defense ministers from Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, and Latvia announced their intention to withdraw from the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel landmines, citing increasing threats from Russia and Belarus, and the geopolitical fragility of the Euro-Atlantic area. Finland is also currently reviewing its stance, with a decision expected soon. Baltic states have been bolstering their deterrence measures since Russia's aggression against Ukraine and particularly in light of the isolationist foreign policy stance of the Trump administration.
Nigerian President Suspends Rivers State Governor and Assembly
On March 18, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, suspending Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the state assembly due to political unrest and pipeline vandalism. Tinubu appointed Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas as interim administrator to maintain control, as disruptions to oil infrastructure threaten Nigeria’s 1.5 million barrel-per-day output. This instability could lead to higher oil prices and further strain Nigeria’s economy.
Critics argue that the move is unconstitutional, undemocratic and a federal overreach, but constitutional scholars maintain it is allowed under Section 305 of Nigeria’s Constitution during a state of emergency. Historical precedents for such actions under the Fourth Republic were set in 2004 and 2006 when then-President Obasanjo suspended governors in Plateau and Ekiti States, with National Assembly approval.
Putin Accepts Partial and Tentative Ceasefire After Trump Call
On March 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to halt energy infrastructure attacks in Ukraine and open Black Sea talks following a phone call with President Trump. While Putin committed to a pause in energy strikes, Russia continued attacks shortly after the call, including a drone strike on civilian infrastructures in Sumy. Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of breaking promises and rejecting the full terms of a 30-day ceasefire brokered by the US. Former Russian President and current deputy chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, parodied the EU and Ukraine following the Trump-Putin phone call, posting this on X.:
Turkey's Opposition Leader Arrest Plunges Markets
Today, March 19, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested on corruption and terror charges, a move seen as President Erdoğan’s attempt to curb opposition. The arrest caused the Turkish lira to fall by as much as 12.7% to a record low of 42 against the dollar before stabilizing at 38.03 (a 3.6% decline), while the BIST 100 index dropped 6.87% during trading and closed down 8.72% at approximately 9,808 points. Erdoğan’s actions are likely to deter foreign investment and weaken Turkey’s role in NATO.
EU Sanctions Key M23 and RDF Leaders
On March 17, the EU imposed sanctions on key M23 commanders and Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) leaders for their involvement in the eastern DRC conflict, prompting M23 to withdraw from Angola-mediated peace talks. The sanctions include asset freezes and travel bans. Sanctioned M23 individuals are: president Bertrand Bisimwa, recruitment head Désiré Rukomera, Colonel John Imani Nzenze, and Joseph Musanga Bahati (senior commanders). RDF sanctions target commanders Ruki Karusisi, Eugene Nkubito, and Pascal Muhizi. Additionally, Francis Kamanzi (CEO, Rwanda Mines) and Gasabo Gold Refinery were sanctioned for exploiting conflict minerals. This follows the U.S. Treasury Department's sanctions last month on Rwanda's Minister of State for Regional Integration, James Kabarebe, for his role in the conflict. Rwanda has criticized Belgium for lobbying for what it calls ‘unjustified’ sanctions.
Rwanda Cuts All Diplomatic Ties with Belgium
On March 17, Rwanda severed all diplomatic ties with Belgium, declared its diplomats persona non grata, and gave them 48 hours to leave the country over what they described in a Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement as Belgium’s ‘neo-colonial delusions.’ This follows what Rwanda believes to be a Belgium-led campaign for international sanctions against Rwanda.
Belgium has issued a reciprocal response, with the Foreign Ministry stating on X: