Trump Ousts Maduro as U.S. Prepares to 'Run' Venezuela, Bulgaria Joins the Eurozone, Iran’s Central Bank Chief Resigns as Protests Spread, China Conducts Live-Fire Drills Around Taiwan, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Brief
Good Morning and Happy New Year!
Welcome to the first 2026 edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Here are the key issues you should know about that are expected to shape political risk this week.
Maduro is in US custody. The Venezuelan president will be arraigned at noon ET today before District Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein in Manhattan on narco-terrorism charges.
US forces captured him in a pre-dawn strike on Caracas on Saturday. At least 80 people were killed during the operation. The UN Security Council is slated to convene at 10:00 AM EST today to discuss the situation. Vice President Rodriguez is now serving as acting president and is reportedly coordinating with Washington, including requesting a full cooperation agenda from the US president, which has raised suspicion that the ouster may have been a backchannel optical move. Secretary Rubio confirmed that the US is in charge of “the direction” of Venezuela and has imposed an oil “quarantine.”
Meanwhile, Indo-Pacific tensions are escalating. China completed live-fire drills around Taiwan involving 89 aircraft and 14 naval vessels simulating port blockades. In parallel, in his New Year’s Eve address, Xi made clear that Taiwan’s reunification with China is ‘unstoppable.’
On Sunday, North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles within a 900–950 km range, which eventually landed in the Sea of Japan outside Japan’s EEZ. Despite regional tensions, South Korean President Lee arrived in Beijing yesterday (January 4) for the first state visit to China since 2019, where he was seen on Chinese State TV reaffirming his country’s commitment to the One China Policy.
At the same time, the Iranian economic crisis is deteriorating. Protests are now in Day 9, with at least 16 dead across 174 locations in 25 provinces. Supreme Leader Khamenei has ordered a crackdown, mandating that rioters ‘be put in their place’. Trump has threatened intervention.
The Speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that US forces in the region would be ‘legitimate targets’ in the event of any intervention.
Wildcards (60-day probability-weighted impact): (1) Supreme Court IEEPA ruling
