Trump Levies Tariffs on Eight (8) NATO Allies Over Greenland, France’s Budget Impasse Continues, Portuguese Presidential Election Heads to Runoff, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Brief
Good Morning!
Welcome to this edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.
The Greenland crisis continues to escalate. Some NATO allies, predominantly from the EU, have deployed troops to the territory. Trump has responded with tariffs. Meanwhile, on the domestic front in the U.S, President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minnesota, but later walked it back after several criticisms.
Right now, the DOJ is still actively investigating the governor of Minnesota as well as the mayor of Minneapolis.
Iran’s protest crackdown is intensifying, with reported deaths within the range of 3,400–16,500, as a near total internet blackout remains in place. President Trump earlier threatened military action against Iran before backtracking, but rhetoric escalated again over the weekend. Supreme Leader Khamenei called Trump a ‘criminal’ for encouraging protesters, while Trump responded by urging a ‘new leadership’ in Iran and labelling Khamenei a ‘sick man’. Iranian President Pezeshkian warned that any attempt on Khamenei’s life would trigger an all-out war.
At the same time, the United States has enforced a new immigration crackdown targeting 75 countries. In parallel, the US President has constituted the Board of Peace as part of his 20-point Gaza Peace Plan, appointing members from his inner circle and extending invitations to other leaders, including Milei, Carney, Al Sisi, Erdogan, and Tony Blair.
Trump has appointed himself inaugural Chairman with sole authority to approve membership and decisions, and is now selling seats to interested countries. Under the draft charter, countries or organizations contributing over $1 billion in cash within the first year of the charter’s entry into force would be exempt from the standard three year membership term.
In Europe, France’s budget impasse continues. Prime Minister Lecornu suspended parliamentary debates on Thursday and announced key concessions to the Socialists on Friday to avoid a no confidence vote. He published a letter to business leaders yesterday to reassure them, while justifying a corporate surtax to fund defense spending. He described the measure as a form of economic patriotism (“expression concrète de leur patriotisme”).
Notwithstanding, a decision on whether to invoke Article 49.3 (though unlikely) or use ordinances to pass the 2026 budget is expected later