Netanyahu Set to Dismiss Shin Bet Chief, Russia Evades Western Sanctions Using Crypto to Trade Oil, China Exploits Deep-Sea Mining for Intelligence, Political Crises in the Balkans Worsen, And More
Grinfi Political Risk Intelligence Weekly Briefing
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. In this issue, we examine key geopolitical events shaping the defense, energy, and DeFi markets, providing a deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood.
"Nations reel and stagger on their way; they make hideous mistakes; they commit frightful wrongs; they do great and beautiful things. And shall we not best guide humanity by telling the truth about all this, so far as the truth is ascertainable?"
W.E.B. Du Bois, Black Reconstruction in America, 1860–1880. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1935, p. 714.
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
INSIDE GRINFI NEWS
Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO) officially launches this month as an independent intelligence and policy hub of Grinfi Consulting, providing 24/7 advanced real-time threat monitoring, regulatory and market risks tracking, and geopolitical risk analysis through a combined human intelligence (eyes-on-the-ground) and high tech approach. You can read more about it here.
Grinfi Political Risk Edge is expanding with an enterprise-tier subscription, offering exclusive strategic intelligence briefings with extra perks for firms of all sizes; from small teams to medium and large corporations.
Don't be left behind. Manage political risks with trusted, high-value intelligence for your team. As the current political climate becomes increasingly charged with trade wars, sanctions, and shifting regulations that have ripple effects across industries and global supply chains, survival is crucial. In fact, as tariffs become the favorite word in the geopolitical and geoeconomic dictionary, it’s not just the Laswellian who gets ‘what, when, and how,’ but those ‘who know what and how to gain the edge while mitigating the risks’. Beat the market with an informed strategy based on accurate tracking of political developments, backed by direct, non-ideological, market-focused, data-driven analysis.
High-Impact Situational Updates
Major Headlines
U.S. Strikes Houthis in Yemen: On March 15, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, resulting in civilian casualties and escalating tensions in the Red Sea corridor. The Houthis claim to have retaliated with two attacks on the USS Harry Truman carrier group in the Gulf of Aden. Trump has vowed to use ‘overwhelming lethal force’ until attacks on international vessels end, while the Houthis stated they will respond with ‘escalation for escalation.’
Photo Credit: Reuters Russia-Ukraine Conflict Deepens: On March 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of prolonging the conflict by rejecting a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal. Russian troops have reportedly amassed along the Ukrainian border, while both sides continue intense drone strikes. Trump has threatened new sanctions against Russia if it refuses to engage in peace negotiations.
Worsening Political Crisis in the Balkans: On March 15, over 100,000 protesters took to the streets of Belgrade, Serbia, against President Aleksandar Vučić, while thousands rallied in Bucharest, Romania, calling for stronger EU support.
Cuba Suffers National Power Outage: On March 14, a systemic grid failure in Havana plunged Cuba into darkness, sparking fears of unrest as power remained unrestored.
Carlos Slim Targets Pemex Oil Fields: On March 14, Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim announced plans to acquire two Pemex oil fields (Zama and Ixachi) through private negotiations, aiming to expand control over Mexico's energy sector.
Turkey Uses AI to Tax Fortune Tellers and Sorcerers: On March 16, reports indicate that Turkey’s Treasury and Finance Ministry in Ankara has begun investigating and deploying AI software to audit the earnings of fortune tellers and informal online workers, cracking down on tax evasion. Authorities identified 1,034 "high-risk" taxpayers, most of whom operate on platforms like YouTube, TikTok, WhatsApp, and Telegram.
Hungary Expands Family Tax Cuts: On March 16, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced an expansion of family tax cuts, exempting mothers with multiple children from personal income tax. Under the plan, mothers with one child will not pay income tax until the child reaches 30. At the same time, on March 15, massive opposition protests erupted in Budapest against Orbán’s regime.
EU Leaders to Finalize €800 Billion Defense Plan: On March 19, EU leaders will meet in Brussels to finalize an €800 billion defense spending plan, spurred by Trump's stance on NATO.
Netanyahu to Dismiss Head of Shin Bet: On March 16, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to fire Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar via a cabinet vote this week, citing distrust amid the ongoing war.
Taiwan President Announces Anti-Infiltration Measures, Military Courts Reinstatement, and Threatening Letters from China: On March 13, President Lai Ching-te in Taipei unveiled 17 countermeasures, including the reinstatement of military courts, to combat Chinese infiltration. Lai cited threatening letters from Beijing.
Japan PM Admits Gift Voucher Distribution: On March 13, PM Shigeru Ishiba in Tokyo admitted his office distributed ¥100,000 gift vouchers to freshman LDP lawmakers, sparking a political scandal.
Swiss-Singapore Defense Cooperation: On March 14, Switzerland and Singapore in Bern signed a defense agreement to enhance military training and tech collaboration. This follows Singapore Defense Minister Dr. Ng Eng Hen’s meeting with New Zealand counterpart Judith Collins in Auckland. The agreement comes amid rising militarization in the Indo-Pacific and growing Chinese aggression. Meanwhile, Canada and the Philippines announced plans to sign a similar defense pact.
China Explores Deep-Sea Mining for Intelligence: On March 15, China’s state-backed COMRA in Beijing announced expanded deep-sea mining trials in the Pacific, integrating advanced surveillance technology to bolster intelligence-gathering capabilities.
Peace Talks to Resolve the Congo Crisis: On March 18, Angola will host direct peace talks in Luanda between the DRC government and M23 rebels, following the SADC's planned withdrawal of peacekeeping forces from eastern DRC.
