Is the U.S. On the Verge of Recession? Will the Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Hold? Is the US-EU Trade War Expanding? Could Duterte's Arrest Trigger Domestic Instability in the Philippines? And More
Grinfi Political Risk Weekend Brief
Welcome to the weekend edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. In this brief, we examine key geopolitical events shaping the defense, energy, and DeFi markets, providing a deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s end the week with a pleasant laugh 😄 to lighten the mood.
"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far."
Theodore Roosevelt, “Speech at the Minnesota State Fair.” 2 Sept. 1901, Minneapolis, MN. Theodore Roosevelt Papers, Library of Congress, Manuscript Division
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
High-Impact Situational Updates
U.S. Senate Set to Approve Republican Stopgap Spending Bill as Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY) Concedes to Pressure to Avert Shutdown and Keep the Government Open Through September 2025
North Korea Launches Ballistic Missiles Amid US-South Korea Freedom Shield Drills
Philippine’s Ex- President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested and Transferred to The Hague for Human Rights Trial
Armenia and Azerbaijan Reach Draft Agreement After Decades of Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Finalize Border Deal, Ending Years of Clashes
Serbian Parliament Descends Into Violence Over Constitutional Reform
Singapore Raises Defense Budget by 15% as Regional Tensions Grow
Ukraine Accepts Ceasefire Proposal; Russia Remains Hesitant as Putin Sets Conditions
EU Imposes Tariffs on US Steel and Agriculture; US Threatens 200% Retaliatory Tariff on European Alcohol
US Stock Market Drops 10% as Geopolitical and Trade Tensions Escalate
Rheinmetall Projects 30% Sales Growth in 2025 Driven by European Rearmament
Iraq Moves to Cut Iranian Gas Imports Following US Sanctions
Bitcoin Bear Market Deepens Amid Global Instability
Gold Hits $3,000 Per Ounce as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets
Poland Considers Nuclear Armament Amid Changing US Foreign Policy
Lockheed Martin Announces Plans to Increase F-35 Fighter Jet Production
EU Launches New Defense Integration Initiative Across Member States
U.S. Approves Significant Arms Sale to Taiwan, Including Advanced Missile Systems, in a Deal Worth Approximately $385 Million.
OPEC Announces Further Production Cuts to Stabilize Oil Prices
US LNG Exports to Europe Hit a New High
GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
North Korea Launches Ballistic Missiles
On March 10, North Korea fired Multiple ballistic missiles into the sea, timed with South Korea-U.S. annual Freedom Shield military drills, raising tensions in East Asia.
Implication: Regional stability at risk as Pyongyang flexes military muscle.Duterte Arrested and Transferred to The Hague for Human Rights Trial
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested on his way from Hong Kong and transferred to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity linked to his controversial war on drugs. His arrest has sparked strong reactions, particularly from his supporters, including his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, who has accused authorities of undermining national sovereignty.
Implication: Duterte’s arrest could create significant political instability in the