Is Rwanda On the Cusp of Becoming a Political Pariah?
Could Speculations Over Rwanda's Alleged Support for M23 Dampen Its Investor Appeal and Development Drive?
Since the early January 2025 breakthroughs in the M23 guerilla operations in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which led to the fall of the cities of Goma and Bukavu, there has been a global outcry calling for sanctions against Rwanda for its alleged backing of the rebel movement. Both within Africa and beyond, Rwanda has found itself at the receiving end of strong political backlash, with President Paul Kagame vowing to "spit in the faces" of those threatening Rwanda’s existence. The recent UN Security Council meeting to discuss the Congo crisis yielded little political progress.
However, recent aggressive international political moves, particularly the UK’s announcement of the suspension of bilateral aid to Rwanda on February 25 and Rwanda’s rejection of its 2024-2029 development cooperation agreement with Belgium, signal a deteriorating diplomatic environment with significant implications for corporate stakeholders in the region. The political risks appear to be rising quickly and becoming more complicated as donor relationships sour, and Rwanda remains assertive, defiant, while at the same time pursuing massive international lobbying to salvage its economy. Is Rwanda at risk of losing its coveted status as a sought-after investment destination? Is the Central African state on the verge of becoming a global pariah?
Let’s examine Rwanda’s current political risk portfolio.