How Long Can Bayrou Hold On?
France on the Verge of Getting a Budget as Parliament Remains Irreconcilably Divided, with a No-Confidence Vote Scheduled
French politics at the moment remains a battleground of bitter disputes, relentless maneuvering, and power struggles, where ideological rigidity appears to take precedence over effective governance. With a parliament even more divided since Macron’s rushed elections last summer following the European elections—and now further fractured after the removal of Barnier—the question is: How long can the seasoned political operator, François Bayrou, hold on? Most importantly, how long will parliamentary deadlock prevent France from having a budget or a clear path forward?
On Monday, February 3, French Prime Minister Bayrou invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to unilaterally pass the 2025 budget, bypassing a parliamentary vote. While legally permissible, this move has provoked two no-confidence motions from the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. The votes are scheduled for Wednesday, February 5, 2025. Bayrou previously survived a no-confidence motion brought by LFI last month.
