Grinfi Political Risk Briefing
Latest Geopolitical Insights on Political Risks Shaping DeFi, Energy, Defense, and Global Supply Chains
Global Political Updates
Trump’s Inauguration and First Move: On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th U.S. President, heralding what he called a ‘Golden Age for America.’
An Explosive First Day in Office: Trump Hits the Ground Running with Sweeping Executive Orders
Donald Trump’s first day back in the Oval Office on January 20, 2025, was anything but ordinary. With radically swift action, he rescinded 78 Biden-era executive orders and signed a host of new directives aimed at overhauling U.S. foreign and domestic policies. Among the most notable actions were:
Trump’s proposed tariffs, expected by Feb. 1, could generate $1.6T by 2035 according to latest estimates, but risk retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and China, disrupting trade and global supply chains. Read more
On January 21, 2025, Trump unveiled the $500B Stargate Project to boost U.S. AI dominance, with OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle leading development, $100B invested upfront, and Texas set as the HQ for the establishment of state-of-the-art data centers.
On January 24, Pro-Europe (Slovensko je Európa!) protest erupted in Slovakia, with thousands opposing Fico's pro-Russia foreign policy.
On January 24, 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a nuclear move suspended nearly all foreign assistance programs. Read more:
Pete Hegseth Confirmed: The U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote.
Deportation Flights Initiated: The Trump administration has begun deportation flights for individuals previously allowed temporary legal entry under the previous administration. First deportation flights have arrived in Latin America.
On the economic front, the World Bank projects global growth to stabilize at around 2.7% in 2025–26, with emerging markets expected to drive some recovery despite lingering uncertainties and trade tensions.
Grinfi DeFi Pulse
On January 20, 2025, President Trump’s meme coin, $TRUMP, surged to an $11.7B market cap shortly after its release, with Solana (SOL) reaching a record $295.83 and Bitcoin (BTC) climbing to $109,588. Just ahead of the inauguration, First Lady Melania Trump launched her own meme coin, $MELANIA, on the Solana blockchain.
A New Era? Trump, Crypto, and the Future of DeFi
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The launch of President-elect Donald Trump’s meme coin ($TRUMP) has set the crypto world abuzz, sparking debates about its impact on global politics, geoeconomics, and the future of the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. What can we expect in the next four years? Let’s break it down.
Grinfi Energy Radar
On January 20, President Trump declared a national energy emergency, issuing an executive order to expand U.S. fossil fuel production.
Trump's pledge to "drill, baby, drill" and withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement has sparked concerns about the future of global climate efforts.
Despite political uncertainties, annual renewable energy investments continue to rise, exceeding $2 trillion.
Grinfi Defense Monitor
Trump's Sanction Threat on Russia: President Trump has warned that the U.S. will impose additional and harder sanctions on Russia unless it ends what he termed "a ridiculous war." He has also expressed a desire to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Following recent military setbacks in Syria and Lebanon, Iran is currently reassessing its regional strategy and making diplomatic overtures.
The IDF has stated its intention to maintain a military presence in Gaza for much of 2025.
The United Nations has suspended all travel into areas held by Yemen's Houthi rebels. In an associated development, the Trump administration has re-designated the Houthi rebels (also known as Ansar Allah) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).
The Houthis have vowed to continue attack on ships in the Red Sea corridor.
In a related development, Trump has designated Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations.
Hostage Release: Four Israeli female soldiers—Karina Ariev, Daniela Gilboa, Naama Levy, and Liri Albag—were released today, January 25, after being held captive by Hamas since October 7, 2023. Their release comes as part of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which included a prisoner exchange. Scores of Palestinians have also been released by the Israeli government.
Trump’s return could spark a US-EU trade war with 10-20% tariffs, slash EU growth by 0.5%, and push NATO allies toward 5% GDP defense spending, testing Europe’s push for strategic autonomy.
Transatlantic Relations and EU Strategic Autonomy in the Wake of Trump’s Return
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Donald Trump's return to the White House has rekindled discussions on the future of transatlantic relations and the EU's pursuit of greater defense autonomy. With the clear threat of a trade war, shifting security dynamics—particularly regarding Greenland, Ukraine, and NATO—and growing political uncertainties, the EU now, more than ever, faces critical and undeniably challenging decisions in the months ahead.
