Friedrich Merz's Conservative CDU/CSU Wins German Elections, Zelensky Offers to Resign, Russian Security Council Head Shoigu Begins Visit to Southeast Asia, and More

Grinfi Political Risk Intelligence Weekly Briefing

Photo Credit: EuroNews

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. In this issue, we examine key geopolitical events shaping the defense, energy, and DeFi markets, providing a deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

High-Impact Updates

Photo Credit: France 24

• Friedrich Merz won the German election held yesterday, February 23 and is set to become the next chancellor. His conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured a plurality in parliament with 28.6% of the vote. But who will be the coalition partners? What should businesses expect?

• Russia reportedly launched 267 attack drones at Ukraine overnight on February 23, marking the largest drone assault since the full-scale invasion began.

• ICC-sanctioned Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu begins a four-day visit to Southeast Asia today, February 24, with stops in Indonesia and Malaysia. The visit will focus on security and defense discussions. What outcomes can be expected? We’ll break it down.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday, February 23, during a commemoration marking three years since the Russian invasion, that he is willing to step down if it secures Ukraine’s entry into NATO. However, both the U.S. and Russia have ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, with Moscow insisting on maintaining its sphere of influence. Meanwhile, French and British leaders will visit Washington this week to discuss strategic interests and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

• Berachain’s total value locked (TVL) has reached $3.26 billion, positioning it as the sixth-largest blockchain network in decentralized finance (DeFi). It has surpassed Arbitrum ($2.9 billion) and Base ($3.24 billion) since its main debut on February 6.

• The Infini stablecoin bank reportedly suffered a major breach, with a hacker draining over $49 million in USDC. According to reports on February 23, the exploit may have stemmed from retained admin access to a smart contract. As of now, no comprehensive audit has been conducted.

• Greenpeace faces a $300 million lawsuit from Energy Transfer, the company behind the Dakota Access Pipeline, in a case that could push the environmental advocacy organization to bankruptcy. The trial, which begins today, February 24, stems from the 2016 protests at Standing Rock.

• ExxonMobil and its partners are investing nearly $200 million in a gas project in Australia, while Swiss Asset Management firm Energy Infrastructure Partners (EIP) is injecting 150 million euros to increase its stake from 49% to 65% in BayWa r.e., a renewable energy developer.

• Italian giant Saipem and Norwegian firm Subsea7 have agreed to a $4.63 billion merger, creating Saipem7, a major force in offshore energy services. Announced on February 23, the deal combines Saipem’s engineering and drilling expertise with Subsea7’s subsea capabilities, projecting annual revenues of €20 billion ($21 billion) and an order backlog of €43 billion ($45 billion).

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Recap

• Brazil appears to be on tightrope as mounting political risks scare investors

• Malawi imposes stricter export control measures following foreign aid suspension

• American and Russian diplomats met last week in Saudi Arabia to discuss the Ukraine conflict and possible steps toward de-escalation. Russian officials described potential talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as "promising" but ruled out any territorial concessions. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified on Thursday, February 20, that a Trump-Putin meeting will only take place if progress is made in ongoing diplomatic negotiations.