Did Trump Misjudge China? US to Broker Deal between DR Congo and Rwanda, India-Pakistan Brawl Escalates Over Kashmir Attack, Tanzania Bans all Agricultural Imports from South Africa & Malawi, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Weekend Brief
Welcome to the weekend edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. In this issue, we examine key geopolitical events shaping the defense, energy, and DeFi markets, providing a deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s end the week with a pleasant laugh 😄 to lighten the mood.
"You cannot shake hands with a clenched fist."
Indira Gandhi, Selected Speeches and Writings of Indira Gandhi. New Delhi: Indira Gandhi Memorial Trust, 1975.
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
MAJOR HEADLINES
— US to Broker ‘Declaration of Principles’ Ceasefire Deal Between DR Congo and Rwanda
Today, April 25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to host a signing ceremony in Washington for a "Declaration of Principles" agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The agreement aims to secure U.S. access to Congo's cobalt and coltan while promoting a ceasefire in eastern DRC. The deal, which is expected to be signed by DRC Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe, follows a truce pledge made by the DRC and M23 rebels on April 23, facilitated by Qatari-mediated talks in Doha on March 18.
This agreement also stems from a proposal made to the US State Department by Congolese Senator Pierre Kanda Kalambayi at the behest of President Félix Tshisekedi in February. Since then, major discussions have taken place between senior US and Congolese officials, which included a visit to Kinshasa by the State Department Senior Advisor for Africa, Massad Boulous.
The proposal sought to attract American attention amidst the U.S.-China rare earth minerals competition, with a plan to counter China's dominance in DRC mining by drawing U.S. investments worth billions for mining infrastructure and tax systems, while also inviting a U.S. security guarantee to end the ongoing conflict.
Reports suggest that a deal has already been signed between the Congolese government and Erik Prince, head of the private military firm Blackwater and an ally of President Trump, to secure the supply chain, curb smuggling, and fight insurgency.
Rwanda, which is also expected to be involved in the talks, denies supporting the M23 group, which has been accused by the DRC and the UN of seizing the mineral-rich regions of Goma and Bukavu since January 2025. The conflict, rooted in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, has displaced close to 300,000 people in 2025 alone, according to the UNHCR. Past ceasefires have failed, and M23’s parallel banking system in occupied areas poses challenges for enforcement.
This deal is being closely monitored by U.S. tech firms, who are now seeking safer supply chain routes as the global race for cobalt and other resources intensifies. At the same time, Canadian firm Alphamin Resources' shares rose 6.67% after reopening its DRC Bisie tin mine on April 10.
The DRC is betting big on this deal to attract massive foreign direct investment (FDI) from the U.S. into its mining sector, aiming to counter the World Bank’s 2025 projection of a 5.1% decrease in GDP growth, attributed to reduced mining output due to the conflict.
Overall, the DRC's extractive (mining) sector accounts for a substantial share of its nearly $68 billion GDP.
— India-Pakistan Feud Enters Uncharted Waters Following the Kashmir Attacks
On April 22, three gunmen killed 26 tourists in Baisaran meadows near Pahalgam, Kashmir, marking the deadliest civilian attack since 2006. The Resistance Front, affiliated with the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility.