Comey's '8647' Post Ignites Controversy, Moody's Lowers U.S. Credit Rating, EU Advances Plans for Ukraine War Crimes Tribunal, Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan Wins Romanian Presidential Election, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Intelligence Weekly Briefing
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. In this issue, we examine key geopolitical events shaping the defense, energy, and DeFi markets, providing a deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood.
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"For as the nature of foul weather lieth not in a shower or two of rain, but in an inclination thereto of many days together; so the nature of war consisteth not in actual fighting, but in the known disposition thereto, during all the time there is no assurance to the contrary."
Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan, or The Matter, Forme and Power of a Commonwealth Ecclesiasticall and Civil. London: Andrew Crooke, 1651. Chapter XIII, “Of the Natural Condition of Mankind as Concerning Their Felicity and Misery”
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
MAJOR HEADLINES
— Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating Over Ballooning Government Debt
Markets are expected to remain cautiously muted today following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, as wariness persists over ongoing tariff risks and worsening fiscal imbalances. Early trading reflects this sentiment, with slight declines in the U.S. dollar and equity futures. Currency markets are likely to face further pressure due to fears that the downgrade could reduce the appeal of U.S. assets. Meanwhile, Treasury bond yields are expected to rise, increasing borrowing costs across both public and private sectors. Equity markets may post slower gains as a result.
On May 16, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the United States’ sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, removing the country’s last remaining triple A rating among the major credit agencies. This marks Moody’s first downgrade of U.S. debt since it began ratings in 1917. The agency cited the sustained rise in federal debt, now $36.2 trillion or 124% of GDP, and surging interest payments, which are projected to exceed $1.2 trillion annually by 2028, according to Moody’s and the Congressional Budget Office.
In its press release, Moody’s stated:
“Successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. We do not believe that material multi year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration. Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat.”
The fiscal deficit for 2025 is estimated at $2.1 trillion or 7.8% of GDP, with projections pointing to a widening deficit of 9% of GDP by 2035. This is expected to be driven by increasing entitlement spending and a potential extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which could add an estimated $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
Moody’s also underscored the impact of persistent political gridlock, particularly Congress’s failure to address long term fiscal challenges such as Social Security and Medicare underfunding. However, the agency shifted its outlook from negative to stable, citing the U.S. economy’s resilience, the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Still, it noted risks from President Donald Trump’s ongoing threats to influence Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Moody’s action mirrors Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. to AA+ in August 2023 and S&P’s similar downgrade in August 2011. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has dismissed the downgrade as ‘politically motivated’, criticizing Moody’s reliance on what he calls ‘lagged indicators’. This comes amidst discussions over Trump’s omnibus reconciliation bill (“big beautiful bill”, in Trump’s words), which narrowly passed the House Budget Committee on Sunday, May 18, following a first failed attempt. The bill now faces a difficult path forward, given stiff opposition from some Republican congressmen and Democrats concerned about rising debt and excessive spending.
— Comey's '8647' Post Ignites Controversy and Triggers Secret Service Investigation
Former FBI Director James Comey was interviewed by the U.S. Secret Service on May 16 after posting an Instagram photo the day prior (May 15), showing seashells arranged to form “86 47,” with the caption: “Cool shell formation on my beach walk.” Speculation has swirled regarding the credibility of Comey’s sudden discovery, with questions about whether he genuinely encountered the shell arrangement or staged it and concocted a political narrative.
Trump administration officials, including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, FBI Director Kash Patel, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, accused Comey of implying a threat against President Donald Trump, the 47th U.S. president, as “86” is slang for “remove” or, in rare instances, “kill.” Following widespread backlash, Comey deleted the post and issued a statement denying any violent intent, claiming ignorance of the slang and reiterating his opposition to political violence.
In addition to the Secret Service interview, several Republican lawmakers have called for a congressional investigation. President Trump, in his response, suggested the post amounted to a call for assassination. This follows two previous assassination attempts on his life. Since Comey’s post, social media has seen widespread reposting of “8647” and a surge in violent and increasingly divisive rhetoric, particularly along party lines.
Some have accused the Trump administration of ‘manufacturing outrage’ and “terror-washing” what they claim was an innocent, restaurant-style post that could simply imply “impeachment.” Others, however, argue that given Comey’s seasoned background as a former law enforcement official, he was fully aware of the code’s implications within security and intelligence circles.
— EU Advances Plan for Ukraine War Crimes Special Tribunal to Prosecute Russian Officials
Following the EU’s political endorsement of the Ukraine War Crimes Special Tribunal on May 9, questions are arising about the prospects for any resolution to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in the near future.
On May 16, European foreign ministers convened in Kyiv to finalize plans for the tribunal to prosecute Russian officials for war crimes. The tribunal targets Kremlin leaders including President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for their roles in the invasion of Ukraine. It is backed by 42 countries, including all EU members except Hungary and Slovakia. The tribunal will be established under the legal framework of the Council of Europe to address aggression and atrocities since Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, which has resulted in over 160,000 casualties in 2025 alone.
The initiative, supported by a €50 million EU fund, aims to establish a hybrid court by September 2025, combining Ukrainian and international judges. The Russian foreign ministry condemned the tribunal as Western propaganda on May 17, vowing non-cooperation and possible retaliation. This move follows the International Criminal Court’s 2023 arrest warrant for Putin, which Russia dismissed.
How the US will respond is crucial, as recent weeks have seen senior US officials, including yesterday, May 18, when Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio held warm discussions with Zelensky in Rome. Tensions are rising between Trump and Putin, while Putin’s refusal to meet Zelensky in Istanbul has stalled peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Observers are questioning why the EU chose to give its political endorsement at such a critical time, with US-led Russia Ukraine negotiations underway. The new measure, despite the uncertainty, is likely to disrupt talks. The key question remains whether the US will support the EU or if Trump still trusts Putin’s readiness to negotiate.
At the same time, the Coalition of the Willing issued an ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. The Russian Foreign Ministry responded by saying:
Former Russian President and current Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev went further in his threatening rhetoric on X:
— Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan Wins Romanian Presidential Election
On May 18, Romania held the second round of its presidential election rerun, with Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan defeating George Simion.
The centrist independent mayor promised a reconstruction of Romania in his victory post on X:
The election was a rerun after the November 2024 vote was annulled due to alleged Russian-backed online interference. Romania’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Andrei Tarnea, argued at the time that Russia had launched a large-scale disinformation campaign that directly interfered with the election.
Simion, who opposed aid to Ukraine and modeled his campaign on Trump’s MAGA movement, prematurely claimed victory while alleging fraud but conceded later. The eventual winner, Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, campaigned on anti-corruption and pro-EU and NATO policies, emphasizing Romania’s support for Ukraine.
The election is likely to stabilize Romania’s role in NATO and the EU, but Dan faces challenges nominating a prime minister to address a 7.4% GDP budget deficit, the highest in the EU.
— Poland’s Presidential Election Heads to Runoff
On May 18, Poland held the first round of its presidential election, with Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of the Civic Coalition (KO) narrowly winning against conservative historian Karol Nawrocki of the Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Exit polls projected Trzaskowski with 31.2% and Nawrocki with 29.7%, setting up a runoff on June 1. Turnout reached 50.7%, with ~ 30 million eligible voters, including around 500,000 diaspora votes. Official results are expected to come in today, May 19, as tallying continues.
Trzaskowski, deputy leader of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), campaigned on strengthening Poland’s role in the European Union and reversing Law