Chinese Fear Being 'Enslaved' in CAR, Saudi Arabia to Increase Investment in the US, Italy Receives Credit Upgrade, G-20 Adopts Climate Declaration, Trump Gives Zelensky an Ultimatum, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Intelligence Brief
Good Morning! Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, our political risk report for October (Grinfi Geostrategic Pressure Points) has been published. Check it out here. Now, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before diving into the serious stuff.
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“How one lives is so far distant from how one ought to live, that he who neglects what is done for what ought to be done, sooner effects his ruin than his preservation.”
Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, trans. W. K. Marriott (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1916), chap. 15, https://etc.usf.edu/lit2go/217/the-prince/5595/chapter-15-concerning-things-for-which-men-and-especially-princes-are-praised-or-blamed/.
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Last week, several strategic events materially altered the global risk outlook with direct consequences for security, markets, and regulation. They also provide vital signals on the key pressure points to watch this week.
“At Grinfi, we track immediate/direct fragility and systemic contagion (cascading effect), ensuring leaders see risks before they spread.”
In the United States, President Trump ended his 40% tariffs on some Brazilian food products on November 20, reversing measures imposed in July. The change applies to imports arriving after November 13 and could trigger refunds for duties already collected. Brazil supplies about one third (1/3) of the coffee consumed in the U.S. and has become a major source of beef for American buyers.
At the same time, Trump is using the tariff reversal to show action on affordability as household costs rise. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that earlier tariff rollbacks have already removed about $800 billion in projected debt reduction. This comes as the Supreme Court appears to signal doubts about Trump’s legal authority to issue broad tariff orders, with several justices questioning whether the actions fall outside the powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Meanwhile, Congress passed a bill early last week ordering the Justice Department to release all Jeffrey Epstein files within 30 days. The president has already signed it. Some of those formerly in the president’s close circle who championed the bill, to the president’s chagrin, are now experiencing a fallout. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, being one of those, appears to have drawn the president’s ire after he openly called her a traitor, and she announced she will resign next year amid tensions with the administration.
Trump also met New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani for the first time since months of public clashes, in what has been observed as a new dawn in lowering the rising temperature in America’s affectively polarized cross-party democratic politics.
Currently, the administration is weighing military options in Venezuela as U.S. forces expand “Operation Southern Spear.” More than 15,000 troops, over a dozen warships and significant air assets are now positioned in the region, including the USS Gerald R. Ford. Estimates suggest the U.S. has at least 185 Tomahawk missiles ready, and strikes since September have already killed more than 83 people. In parallel, the Venezuelan president, in a radical twist over the weekend, appears to be turning to religion in a last-minute appeal, announcing that he had turned over the country to Jesus to defend it against Trump’s attacks and potential invasion.
On the domestic front, Trump also indicated his intention to end temporary protection status (TPS) for Somali migrants in Minnesota, alleging that Somali groups are involved in financial
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