Canada Set for Fresh Elections, South Korea's Constitutional Court Reinstates Acting President, Germany and the UK Raise Travel Alert for the US, Israel Resumes Attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Intelligence Weekly Briefing
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. In this issue, we examine key geopolitical events shaping the defense, energy, and DeFi markets, providing a deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood.
"The only alternative to coexistence is codestruction"
Jawaharlal Nehru, “Address to the United Nations General Assembly.” Speech delivered at the United Nations General Assembly, New York, October 3, 1960.
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
MAJOR HEADLINES
Geopolitical News
US-Russian Diplomats Meet in Riyadh to Discuss the Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Deal
Today, March 24, U.S. and Russian diplomats are meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to discuss the 30-day U.S.-brokered truce, which remains fragile due to ongoing cross-border attacks. This follows talks between U.S. and Ukrainian diplomats on March 23. Discussions will focus on finalizing and achieving a Black Sea-like ceasefire and reviving the 2022 Black Sea grain deal, which Russia withdrew from in 2023.
Ukraine Railway Hit by Major Cyberattack
On March 24, Ukraine’s state railway operator, Ukrzaliznytsia, was struck by a significant cyberattack that disrupted its online ticketing system and logistics operations, although train services remain operational. The attack coincided with Russian drone strikes on Kyiv that killed three people, intensifying pressure on Ukraine’s infrastructure amid a fragile U.S.-brokered 30-day energy truce. Authorities are investigating the source of the attack, and while no group has claimed responsibility, Ukrainian officials suspect Russian involvement, considering it part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy ahead of a key U.S.-Russia meeting in Riyadh later today.
South Korea Constitutional Court Reinstates Acting President
On March 24, South Korea’s Constitutional Court reinstated Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as acting president with a 7-1 vote among eight justices, overturning his December 27, 2024, impeachment by the National Assembly for refusing to appoint additional justices. The court ruled that while Han’s actions were unconstitutional, they did not warrant removal.
Barbados, St. Lucia, Belize, Grenada Accept Cuban Doctors; Barbados, Grenada Defy U.S. Visa Restriction Threats
Barbados, Belize, and Grenada continue to accept Cuban doctors despite U.S. threats of visa restrictions. The prime ministers of Barbados and Grenada have stated that they are prepared to face the consequences, asserting that their domestic priorities take precedence over foreign pressure.France to Host ‘Coalition of the Willing’ Summit on March 27
France will host the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ summit in Paris on March 27 to bolster support for Ukraine. Discussions are expected to center on military, humanitarian, and diplomatic assistance. The French president made the announcement on X on March 21.
Houthis Escalate Threats as U.S. Bolsters Red Sea Presence
The Houthis have escalated missile threats against U.S. military assets in the Red Sea. In response, the U.S. has reinforced its presence, deploying the USS Carl Vinson to safeguard maritime security.Israel Intensifies Gaza-Lebanon Offensive
Israel has expanded airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon, targeting militant positions and increasing casualties. On March 23, Israel’s security cabinet voted to approve a plan to separate and recognize as independent territories 13 Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.East Asia Talks Collapse Amid U.S.-China Tensions
On March 22, Japan, China, and South Korea held their annual trilateral summit amid growing U.S.-China tensions. While regional economic cooperation was on the agenda, mutual disagreements among the countries hindered any substantive outcomes.UAE Commits $1.4 Trillion to Boost U.S. Economy
The UAE is set to invest $1.4 trillion in the U.S. in a 10-year plan, targeting energy and technology sectors. The move aims to strengthen bilateral ties and expand economic cooperation. The announcement came following a meeting between the US president and the National Security Advisor of the UAE at the White House.Canada Announces Fresh Elections Scheduled for April 28
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has dissolved parliament, setting elections for April 28. The vote is expected to be highly contested, with early polls showing the Liberal Party leading amid trade disputes with the U.S.U.S. Turns to Italy for Egg Supply Amid Holiday Crunch
Facing domestic shortages, the U.S. has now turned to Italy to bolster its egg supply ahead of the Easter holiday season as demand rises.U.S. Bans Ex-Argentine Leader Over Corruption Charges
The U.S. has barred former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner from entry over corruption allegations.French Bid to Target Encrypted Social Media Apps Fails in Parliament
On March 20, a proposed French bill seeking a backdoor mandate for decrypting encrypted social media apps failed to pass in parliament due to privacy concerns and fears of digital security breaches. The French Interior Ministry had been pushing the bill to boost surveillance in combatting widespread drug trafficking on these encrypted platforms.China Eyes €3 Billion Investment Surge in Spain
China is negotiating a €3 billion investment in Spain, focusing on infrastructure and renewable energy.Indonesians Rally Against Military Privilege Legislation
On March 20, protests erupted in Indonesia against proposed legislation that would grant more military officers the ability to hold civilian posts. Hundreds of students and activists rallied outside the parliamentary building in Jakarta, burning tires and clashing with police in opposition to the bill.Sudanese Army Seize Presidential Palace
Sudanese military forces have taken control of the presidential palace in Khartoum, marking a strategic shift in the conflict against the Rapid Support Forces in the ongoing civil war.Germany Shuts South Sudan Embassy as Civil War Looms
Germany has closed its embassy in Juba, South Sudan, citing escalating violence and the growing risk of civil war as tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar intensify. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced the closure on March 22.
