Can Trump End the 'Russia-Ukraine' War?
Assessing the Political Liabilities and Geostrategic Options
Since Trump's boisterous campaign promise during a CNN Town Hall in New Hampshire on May 10, 2023, that he could resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within '24 hours' of taking office, all eyes have been on what could be part of this seemingly miraculous geopolitical calculus. Upon assuming the presidency, it’s clear that his stance has evolved, particularly as he confronts the complexities of the situation, which appears far more challenging now that he is no longer in campaign mode.
However, in principle, his determination to end the conflict seems unchanged. It has been three years since Russian President Vladimir Putin last spoke to an American president—the last time being in February 2022, just before the invasion. Could Trump broker a deal? His recent phone calls with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggest an intentional approach to diplomatically ending the war.
Meanwhile, a series of other unfolding geopolitical events are reshaping global defense priorities. President Trump hosted Jordan’s King Abdullah at the Oval Office to discuss the Gaza crisis. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is on a European tour, clarifying America’s shifting defense posture.
Tomorrow, February 14, the Munich Security Conference begins in Germany, where Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Zelensky, who has firmly rejected any pre-arranged US-Russia peace deal while simultaneously affirming to EU leaders that there can be no real security guarantee in NATO or Europe without the US. In the meantime, US Defense Secretary Hegseth has stated that it is practically impossible for Ukraine to regain its pre-2014 territorial boundaries and that it is not ‘betrayal’ for the US to acknowledge this. The EU suspects Washington is conceding too much to Moscow, while the US argues that Europe is pushing an unrealistic tactical plan that is draining both global and Ukrainian resources.
With deep transatlantic disagreements over what should constitute a good deal, and Trump considering a potential meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia, could this be the political finale that crosses the final 't' in the equation?
This edition provides a strategic look at the major geopolitical and supply chain risks associated with these critical developments.