Can China Rescue Cuba from the US-induced Economic Precipice?
Grinfi Political Risk Brief
Good Morning!
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.
Can China save Cuba from the near economic collapse induced by US sanctions? That question hung over a week shaped by two parallel summits and the demolition of the EPA’s endangerment finding in the U.S.
At the Munich Security Conference, Secretary of State Rubio called for a “new geopolitics and a new century of prosperity” alongside European allies. The tone was warmer than Vance’s combative 2025 speech, but the substance cut the same way. He urged allies to spend more, reform faster, and never minced words in accentuating the Trump administration’s position on the irrelevance of the United Nations.
German Chancellor Merz, opening the conference a day before Rubio spoke, declared that the rules-based order “no longer exists,” revealed nuclear deterrence talks with Macron, and warned that “even the United States will not be powerful enough to do it alone.”
In Addis Ababa, the African Union elected Burundi’s President Ndayishimiye as its 2026 chair and reinforced calls for financial self-reliance as external funding declines.
Meanwhile, Washington gutted the legal foundation for U.S. climate regulation. Trump and EPA Administrator Zeldin repealed the 2009 endangerment finding on February 12, the largest deregulatory action in American history. Five European nations confirmed Russia poisoned Alexei Navalny with dart frog toxin. Bangladesh’s BNP won a landslide election. And markets sold off mid-week as AI disruption