Argentina on a Fiscal Precipice, US Federal Government Shutdown on the Horizon, EU Considers 'Drone Wall', Netanyahu Threatens to Resist Palestinian State, Political Histrionics at the UNGA, and More
Grinfi Political Risk Intelligence Brief
Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. In this issue, we examine key geopolitical events shaping global markets and provide deep, beyond-the-headlines assessment. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!
But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood.
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“Concordia res parvae crescunt, discordia maximae dilabuntur.”
(Small things grow by concord; the greatest fall apart through discord.)
Sallust. The War with Catiline; The War with Jugurtha. Translated by J. C. Rolfe. Loeb Classical Library 116. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1931.
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this quote does not represent our views but is intended for reflection purposes only.
From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:
High Impact Situational Updates
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Last week, several strategic events reshaped the global risk environment with direct consequences for security, markets, and regulation.
“At Grinfi, we track immediate/direct fragility and systemic contagion (cascading effect), ensuring leaders see risks before they spread.”
In the United States, former FBI Director James Comey was indicted on charges of making false statements to Congress and obstructing a Senate investigation.
The case has ignited fierce political debate again over lawfare, with critics warning that partisan prosecutions could erode democratic safeguards. At the same time, the White House has now finally unveiled a national strategy against organized political violence and domestic terrorism. The plan expands investigative powers and agency coordination, a move supporters say strengthens security, though civil liberties advocates fear it may be misused to suppress dissent, owing to the president’s recent inflammatory statements.
The US federal government also faces a huge risk of a potential shutdown after Congress failed to pass a stopgap funding measure. The President canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders, and the Office of Management and Budget ordered agencies to finalize contingency plans, including possible furloughs and service suspensions should funding lapse at midnight on October 1.
Meanwhile, at the UN General Assembly last week, dramatic rhetoric, diplomatic chaos and political posturing were all on full display. Diplomats from several countries walked out during Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address. The Finnish President delivered a reflective lecture on small state diplomacy, while the US President criticized immigration policies, complained about the escalator and teleprompter, and referred to climate change as “the greatest con job/scam ever perpetrated on the world.”
The Brazilian and US presidents exchanged barbs, while Syria’s President, a former Al Qaeda leader, unexpectedly held a side conversation with former US General David Petraeus, his ex-chief nemesis during the Global War on Terror (GWOT), with the latter uncanningly heaping effusive praise on the former.
President Trump has announced sweeping new tariffs to take effect on
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