Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence.

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

High Impact Situational Updates

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

Situation as of this morning- Markets are opening cautiously today as concerns over a potential “trade war 2.0” intensified following the Trump administration’s implementation of sweeping new tariffs late last week. Effective Friday, July 24, the United States imposed levies ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from more than 60 nations, covering nearly all American trade volume (~ 99.4% of U.S. imports). The administration is bypassing previous legal hurdles by invoking Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, framing the duties as penalties for failures to police forced labor in supply chains.

While allies such as Canada and the UK face a 10% baseline rate, major competitors including China and Brazil are subject to the 12.5% ceiling. The move has drawn immediate condemnation from the European Union, which rejects the forced‑labor justification as a pretext for protectionism.

Trade War Escalates with Canada. Meanwhile, tensions with Canada have also reached a breaking point beyond the baseline tariffs. Last Monday (July 20), President Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to impose a punitive 50% tariff on approximately $20 billion in specific Canadian goods, including wine, cement, dairy, and hockey sticks. In a stark diplomatic rebuke, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney canceled the joint opening ceremony for the Gordie Howe International Bridge, labeling the US actions a direct violation of the USMCA. The Trump administration argues these measures counter “discriminatory” Canadian practices, but allies warn of severe supply chain disruptions.

Economic and Legal Ramifications. The reintroduction of broad tariffs is already triggering market volatility and stoking inflation fears. A new Harris Poll commissioned by the Guardian reveals that 70% of Americans believe

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

Situation as of this morning. Iran has now formally withdrawn from the Islamabad Memorandum. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced Saturday that Tehran no longer considers itself bound by any of its commitments under the deal.

At the same time, the U.S. death toll is steadily rising. The U.S. military confirmed Sunday that another American service member was killed as part of the war, bringing the total to 17. The latest fatality followed the deaths of two service members in Jordan on Saturday, where U.S. forces were defending against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks.

Ground forces now officially on the table?

For the first time in this conflict, a ground option is being

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

Is the Islamabad Memorandum already dead? Aside from the political optics, was it ever alive in substance to begin with? These are the questions many are asking as the US-Iran ceasefire, barely three weeks old, took on water. President Trump declared the truce "over" on July 7, after Iranian strikes hit three tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. He softened the line a day later, saying he didn't want a return to full-scale war. BUT, as is customary with Trump, that softening didn't last either.

Situation as of this morning. The Strait of Hormuz is closed for the

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

For the first time in Israel’s 78-year history, its government has told the Supreme Court, in writing, that it will not obey a ruling. The cabinet voted unanimously yesterday, July 5, to disregard a High Court order. Legal scholars, opposition leaders and even some of Netanyahu’s former military chiefs are now calling it a genuine and unprecedented constitutional crisis. It comes roughly ten (10) weeks before Israelis are expected to vote, and it raises a question the country has never had to answer before.

That question, precisely, is what happens when the executive branch refuses to accept that the judiciary has the final word? But how, and why, did the situation reach this point?

A broadcast regulator and an “unlawful” ruling

Israel’s Second Authority for Television and Radio, which regulates commercial broadcasters was due to weigh in on the sale of Channel 13, one of the country’s major networks. Enough of its members resigned that it fell below the two-thirds quorum the law requires to operate. Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi and Justice Minister Yariv Levin argued the council was therefore defunct. On June 17, the High Court disagreed, ruling that the resignations had been engineered by the government’s own “deliberate obstruction,” and ordered the council to keep functioning until the underlying petitions are resolved.

The cabinet responded on Sunday by voting to treat every decision, appointment or approval made by the council as null and void. Levin called it a defense of legality rather than a challenge to it, arguing that the rule of law binds every branch of government, including judges, and that a court cannot claim authority the Knesset never granted it. Karhi was blunter, calling the council’s rulings worthless and accusing the justices of overreach.

Opposition leaders see it differently. Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid said a government

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

With six (6) prime ministers resigning in the last decade, is surviving Downing Street now the ultimate test of political grit? Does the modern UK PM need a vision for the future, or just the resilience to survive the week?

Last week, Keir Starmer resigned as Labour leader and Prime Minister, triggering a leadership contest, with nominations set to open on July 9. He bowed to intense pressure following Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by election just four days earlier. However, Starmer said he would remain in office until a successor is chosen. His net approval rating had averaged -46% by November 2025, and by the end of the year he was regarded as one of Britain’s most unpopular prime ministers on record. Labour’s performance in the May 2026 local elections proved disastrous. The party lost more than 1,400 council seats, the largest loss in its history, and lost control of the Welsh Senedd for the first time in more than a century.

Starmer had come under sustained criticism for reversing early policy commitments, including cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners, while failing to reverse economic stagnation. Despite pledges to reduce the cost of living and revive growth, inflation remained elevated, wage growth was eroded by frozen tax thresholds, and housing targets were repeatedly missed. Many critics argued that his government lacked a clear ideological direction and failed to connect emotionally with voters in the way that populist rivals, particularly Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, had managed to do. The local election results ultimately convinced many Labour MPs that Starmer could no longer lead the party into the next general election.

Against this backdrop, Burnham’s path to the leadership required an unusual constitutional maneuver. As Mayor of Greater Manchester, he was not a sitting MP and was therefore ineligible to contest the Labour leadership. To overcome that obstacle, Makerfield MP Josh Simons resigned his seat, allowing Burnham to contest the by election, return to Parliament, and qualify for the leadership race. Burnham won the June 18 contest by more than 9,200 votes, comfortably outperforming polls that had projected only a narrow victory over Reform UK. He was sworn into Parliament on the same day Starmer announced his resignation.

With his parliamentary seat secured, Burnham quickly consolidated support across the party. By June 20, he had received the backing of more than 200 Labour MPs. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, widely regarded as his principal rival, endorsed Burnham immediately after he announced his candidacy rather than entering the race himself. If no other candidate secures the required 81 MP nominations by the July 16 deadline, Burnham will become Labour leader and Prime Minister without a membership vote, potentially entering Downing Street as early as July 17.

What Would a Burnham Premiership Mean?

Burnham is not a typical figure of Labour’s left in the Corbynite tradition. He is a “soft left” pragmatist and a strong advocate of devolution whose political identity was shaped by governing a major city rather than leading an ideological faction. His politics combine socially liberal centrist instincts with an Atlanticist outlook and a belief that the British state must work more effectively for communities that feel left behind. His signature concept of “Manchesterism (distinct from the Manchester capitalism of the 19th century),” the idea that devolved government with meaningful fiscal powers can revive regional economies, is the model he hopes to apply nationally. Whether that approach can be translated into a coherent national economic strategy remains an open question.

On domestic policy, Burnham has already outlined several priorities. He has proposed

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

Last week, in his first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh led the Federal Open Market Committee to a unanimous vote to keep the benchmark overnight rate at 3.5 to 3.75%, where it has sat since the cuts of late 2025. The committee’s updated dot plot removed the prior projection for a cut this year and lifted the median year-end rate to roughly 3.8%, putting a hike, not a cut, on the table.

Now, it’s important to remember that at the moment, inflation is running at its fastest in more than three years, and Warsh used his debut press conference to signal that the bar for further easing has risen. “Price stability is not negotiable,” he told reporters, framing the energy-driven climb in headline CPI as a risk the committee would not look through. Traders responded immediately, repricing the next move toward a possible hike as early as October and pushing the 10 year Treasury yield to about 4.49%.

The market reaction was unforgiving. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on June 17 as the AI-and-easing trade that powered the

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week. We also include a special analysis of the G-7 Summit, which is set to commence today in France.

---

Last weekend, hardline demonstrators in Tehran and Mashhad protested the emerging US-Iran peace deal, chanting slogans including "Death to dishonorable Araghchi, the infiltrator" and "Qalibaf, the compromiser." Protesters accused Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of betraying the legacy of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose death has become a rallying point for opponents of the agreement. Footage from a Tehran rally on Saturday showed demonstrators demanding the resignation of both officials while waving red and black flags and holding signs reading, "Qalibaf, Araghchi, what about the blood of my Leader?"

The critics targeting Ghalibaf and Araghchi belong to an ultra-conservative faction in parliament aligned with the Paydari Front/Jebhe-ye Paydari (Endurance Front), which includes Hajatoleslam Nabavian (also known as Mahmoud Nabavian), a hardline Shia cleric and MP who acts as the de facto spokesperson for the party on foreign affairs. The faction also includes Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of Keyhan newspaper and a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who collaborated with Russia in Syria, and circles close to Saeed Jalili, former secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

Notwithstanding, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday that the agreement is

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

On June 6, hundreds of mostly young Indians gathered at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi, the capital’s designated protest strip, under the banner of the Cockroach Janta Party.

Some wore cockroach masks. Others carried dog-eared exam guides. The party, a deliberate parody of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, was founded three weeks ago after India’s Chief Justice Surya Kant compared unemployed youth who criticized the government to “cockroaches” and “parasites” during a May 15 court hearing. Kant later said his remarks were taken out of context, but the political damage was already done.

Abhijeet Dipke, a 47-year-old political communications strategist and Boston University student who previously worked with the Aam Aadmi Party, turned the insult into a movement. Within a week of launching social media accounts, the CJP’s Instagram page surpassed both the BJP and the Indian National Congress in followers. It now stands at 22.7 million. The movement has since engaged in offline activities, including clean-up drives and protest rallies.

However, the Indian government continues to dismiss the growth of the online movement, claiming it is powered by Pakistani bots, although the CJP has published evidence disproving these claims. Meanwhile, the founder’s account was hacked, and the movement has been subjected to routine cyber attacks by forces allegedly linked to the Indian government.

Nonetheless, at the June 6 rally, the organizers issued a formal ultimatum: the Modi government has seven days to dismiss Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan over alleged irregularities in major national examinations, or face a nationwide stir. A CJP spokesperson told media this was “just a trailer.” The party holds no registration with the Election Commission of India but has become a channel for anger over unemployment, political corruption, exam scandals, and a broader sense among Indian youth that the system has failed them.

While the immediate threat posed by the organization remains limited, our assessment indicates a gradual but notable delegitimization of established

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

The first round results of Colombia’s presidential election, held yesterday, May 31, took a surprising turn. Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing lawyer and political outsider, emerged in first place ahead of left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda, the candidate of President Gustavo Petro’s ruling coalition. The established Uribista right and the moderate center were eliminated.

Abelardo de la Espriella was not expected to win the first round. Every major poll published in the final weeks of the campaign had him running second or third, with support ranging between 25% and 31%. Iván Cepeda, the candidate of President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact coalition, consistently led the field with 40% to 45% support. The establishment right, represented by Uribista Senator Paloma Valencia, was widely seen as de la Espriella’s main competitor for the anti-Petro vote.

Instead, de la Espriella secured 43.73% of the vote, with more than 99% of ballots counted. Valencia collapsed to below 7%, while Cepeda finished with 40.92%. Both de la Espriella & Cepeda advanced to the June 21 runoff as the only viable contenders. Colombia is now headed toward one of the most ideologically polarized presidential contests in its modern democratic history.

But who is de la Espriella?

He is 47 years old, a lawyer by training, and a political newcomer who has never held elected office. He built his political movement, Defenders of the Homeland, on a platform of tougher security policies, reduced state intervention, and aggressive counternarcotics enforcement. He has spoken favorably of Donald Trump, described Nayib Bukele as a model leader, and campaigned directly against Petro’s “Total Peace” strategy with armed groups. His surprise first round performance suggests that voters seeking change did not divide their support between him and Valencia. Instead, they consolidated behind the candidate they believed was most capable of delivering it.

More than a contest between the two candidates, the June 21 runoff is set to showcase two fundamentally different visions for Colombia’s future. Whichever candidate prevails, a large share of the electorate is likely to be dissatisfied with the outcome.

Beyond the electoral outcome itself, the key question is how Colombia’s risk environment could change under either candidate? A de la Espriella presidency would likely produce the most pro-Washington Colombian government since Álvaro Uribe. He would almost certainly reinstate aerial coca eradication, restore full counternarcotics cooperation with the DEA, and align more closely with US policy toward Venezuela and Cuba. Such a shift could trigger a stronger response from FARC dissident factions and the ELN as armed groups resist renewed security pressure.

A Cepeda victory, by contrast, would likely extend Petro’s left wing agenda, including the Total Peace framework and a more distant relationship with Washington on counternarcotics policy. This would likely mean continued uncertainty in cocaine producing regions, ongoing pressure from the United States over drug policy, and a foreign policy orientation more closely aligned with regional left-wing governments.

Colombia remains the world’s leading cocaine producer, Washington’s most important security partner in Latin America, and a critical component of any regional strategy involving Venezuela. The June 21st runoff will determine the direction of that partnership for the next four years. The next president will take office on July 7.

The runoff arithmetic currently favors de la Espriella. He won the first round by nearly three percentage points despite polling more than 10 points behind only weeks earlier, and much of Valencia’s support is expected to shift toward the anti-left candidate. However, first round momentum does not always translate into victory against a consolidated left wing base. The race is now entering its most intense phase.

President Gustavo Petro has since expressed skepticism about the results. He wrote:

In fact, even before the results were announced, Petro had spent months questioning the integrity of the electoral system. On election day itself, he posted allegations of “corruption rings” within the registrar’s office on social media, raising the possibility of a legitimacy dispute that could complicate the political transition regardless of who wins the runoff.

At the same time, this past week marked arguably the most intense period of US-Iran diplomacy since the war began in late February. By Thursday, May 28, negotiators had reached a tentative memorandum of understanding that would extend the ceasefire by

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

The Trump administration has introduced major immigration policy changes that, together, would significantly affect foreign workers, corporate hiring and compliance, and banking procedures. On May 19, Trump signed an executive order directing Treasury and federal banking regulators to treat immigration status as a financial risk factor and issue guidance within 60 days.

On May 20, the DOJ swore in 82 new immigration judges, many viewed as strongly aligned with the administration’s deportation agenda, marking the largest class in the agency’s history. The administration has also dismissed more than 100 judges since January 2025, in many cases without public explanation, raising concerns about increasing politicization within the immigration court system. At the same time, the addition of new judges comes as the immigration court backlog exceeds 3.7 million cases. On May 21, USCIS issued policy memo PM-602-0199, reframing adjustment of status for green cards as ‘extraordinary discretionary relief’ rather than a standard pathway, increasing the likelihood that many visa holders will need to complete the process abroad through consular processing.

However, it is important to clarify that the policy does not remove or repeal adjustment of status under Section 245 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Rather, it raises the threshold for approval by requiring applicants to demonstrate “unusual or outstanding equities” to justify completing the process while remaining in the United States (i.e. demonstrating deservingness of an ‘administrative grace’). As a result, most applicants would undoubtedly face higher scrutiny, with denials expected to increase, particularly for non-dual intent visa holders such as

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Now, on a lighter note, let’s start the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

First, we begin with an emerging health security risk outside the immediate political sphere. Yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The outbreak involves the rare Bundibugyo strain. While the WHO noted that the outbreak does not currently meet pandemic thresholds, it warned that neighboring states face elevated exposure risks due to the absence of approved vaccines or therapeutics for this strain.

In Asia-Pacific, the Philippines is experiencing its most severe political crisis since the 2001 ouster of President Joseph Estrada, with growing risks of a potential constitutional crisis and broader political instability. On May 11, the House voted 257 to 25 to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte for the second time. The charges include misuse of confidential public funds (~₱612.5 million), culpable violation of the Constitution, unexplained wealth of more than ~$110 million, bribery, and alleged threats to assassinate President Marcos, First Lady Liza Marcos, and former House Speaker Martin Romualdez. Romualdez has since resigned amid corruption allegations.

This second impeachment was only constitutionally possible because the Supreme Court, in its July 2025 ruling, struck down the first attempt as barred by the one-year rule and set February 6, 2026 as the earliest date a new complaint could be filed.

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At the same time, a pro-Duterte Senate has staged what has been described as a legislative coup. Lawmakers ousted Senate President Tito Sotto and installed Alan Peter Cayetano by a 13 to 9 vote. The decisive 13th vote came from Senator Ronald dela Rosa, the former national police chief under former President Rodrigo Duterte. Dela Rosa had been absent from the Senate since November 2025. Cayetano himself is a longtime Duterte family ally and was Sara Duterte's father's running mate in 2016.

Meanwhile, the ICC unsealed an arrest warrant against Senator Ronald dela Rosa for crimes against humanity. Gunfire erupted in the Senate on May 13 during an attempted arrest. Dela Rosa slipped out at 2:30 am on May 14, reportedly accompanied by Senator Robin Padilla. He remains at large. President Marcos convened an emergency security meeting on the same day. The Senate Sergeant-at-Arms was suspended.

Still in Asia, the Trump-Xi Beijing summit on May 14-15 produced two separate and seemingly contradictory narratives. First, the White House readout stated that

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

Trump departs for Beijing on Wednesday for the May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping, the first US presidential visit to China since 2017. The likely deliverables are expected to be transactional. All eyes are on potential Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft and agricultural goods, a bilateral Board of Trade, and an extension of the November 2025 Busan trade truce.

Meanwhile, China appears to be armed with real leverage. Its exports grew 21.8% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026. Beijing has wielded its rare earth dominance to force two US tariff retreats, is buying more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, and is arriving at the table as an active mediator in the Iran war. In contrast, Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36%, driven by $4.27 national gasoline prices, 4.5% PCE inflation, and a conflict of his own making, among others.

Undoubtedly, what’s clear at the moment is that Xi's confidence is palpable, while Washington's need for a win is urgent. At the same time, the Taiwan question still remains the X-factor.

In the Middle East, the supposed US-Iran MOU has hit a new wall. Iran delivered its formal counter-proposal to the US on Sunday via Pakistani mediators. Iranian state television reported that Tehran rejected the US framework as amounting to surrender. Iran’s counter-proposal did not address the nuclear program. Trump rejected it the same evening in two Truth Social posts: first accusing Iran of

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

---

After decades of membership in the OPEC cartel, the United Arab Emirates, the group’s third largest producer, has formally exited.

It comes as the ongoing US-Iran war has triggered disruptions/dual blockade in the Persian Gulf, keeping Gulf oil exports well below pre-war levels.

The exit is largely predicated on underlying tensions with Saudi Arabia and dissatisfaction with production quotas that have limited the UAE’s ability to fully utilize its capacity. With the UAE’s departure, OPEC loses

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

“Leave the Kurds alone. We are not guns for hire!” Those words uttered by Iraq’s First Lady Shanaz Ibrahim Ahmed, herself a Kurd, cut through the strategic fog of the US-Israel-Iran war as it enters its third week.

At the moment, Washington is reportedly seeking to arm Iranian Kurdish factions along the Iraq-Iran border to open a ground front, but Kurdish leaders have not forgotten how quickly the United States abandoned their Syrian counterparts in January. This comes as the US is also deploying approximately 2,500 Marines from the Okinawa-based 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and an amphibious assault ship, the USS Tripoli (LHA 7), to the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader military escalation with Iran.

Last Friday, American forces struck military targets on Kharg Island, the chokepoint through which 90% of Iran’s crude exports flow. President Trump announced that he spared the oil facilities but issued an explicit warning that they would be hit next if Iran continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran responded by threatening to strike American-linked oil assets across the Gulf. Brent crude closed the week at $105.66. American gas prices have risen 24% since the war began, to $3.70 per gallon. A fire broke out at Fujairah’s major oil bunkering hub in the UAE on Saturday after Iranian drone debris fell during interception.

Markets delivered their verdict. The S&P; 500 fell to 6,672, its lowest close of 2026 and the third consecutive weekly decline. Japan’s Nikkei shed 3.2%. India’s Sensex dropped 1.9%. The Stoxx 600 has fallen 3.6% since the war began. Revised data confirmed what the sell-off already implied. Fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7%, and core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% YoY.

The American economy is contracting while prices accelerate. The Federal Reserve, which meets on

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The US-Israel-Iran war has entered its 10th day and a new phase. There’s been more strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure. In response, Iran has continued retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases across the Gulf, including attacks on critical water and energy infrastructures. An Iranian strike damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain as well as a fuel storage site in Kuwait. A CNN reporter allowed into Iran to report directly on the situation wrote this about the new phase of the war:

Meanwhile, Mojtaba Khamenei has been named Iran’s new Supreme Leader, succeeding his assassinated father. The cleric, who served as his father’s gatekeeper, fought in the Iran-Iraq War as a member of the Habib ibn Mazahir Battalion, a division of Iran’s paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

He is rarely seen in public and is reportedly tied to some of the most ideologically extreme clerics. He also has direct ties to the IRGC and, although he was considered a frontrunner, he was viewed as the least theological among the candidates considered by the Assembly of Experts. He’s considered the most militarily minded and hardline, with strong connections to the battlefield and pronounced anti-US views.

Israel has vowed to target the new leadership, while Trump called the new leader a “lightweight.” US reported deaths have risen to 8. This comes as the Iranian military is claiming to have captured some US special operations personnel. At the same time, the White House is now saying the operation may be extended by four to six weeks. Oil has risen above $110 a barrel, and the US president has maintained that Americans may have to pay this small price of scarcity in order for the world to be free.

Concurrently, the US State Department has ordered a full evacuation of non-essential personnel from Saudi Arabia following an intensification of Iranian linked attacks that pushed oil prices up dramatically. G7 leaders are now coordinating a joint release of emergency oil reserves to mitigate the risk of a systemic energy shock as Iranian leadership transitions to Mojtaba Khamenei.

US President Trump also appears to be floating the idea of deploying ground troops and is refusing to rule out the possibility of a military draft, a proposal that faces significant domestic opposition among American

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The Middle East is once again in a regional war. This time, the likelihood of a broader global conflict appears higher. However, the question on everyone’s mind as we begin this week is not only about the ongoing war, but also how a few unknown individuals were able to rake in millions through prediction markets by accurately betting on February 28 as the date the U.S. would attack Iran.

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Who’s profiting off war, death, and destruction?

Sources showed that the wallets were freshly created and funded within 24 hours of the strike, with most purchasing "yes" shares on the February 28 contract hours before the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began. Was that mere coincidence or conjecture, or was intelligence shared? Have prediction markets become new platforms for insider trading? How should they be regulated, and do they now represent greater political liabilities and legal risks?

But before that..

Last Saturday, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military airstrikes against Iran in Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several high-ranking officials and family members. The deaths have been confirmed by Iranian state media. However, an Israeli strike on a primary school killed scores of children, with UNESCO labelling the attack ‘a war crime’.

Iran has since launched widespread retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israeli territory and U.S./allied bases across the Gulf. Iranian missiles were also fired toward UK bases in Cyprus, escalating the conflict. This followed the UK government’s decision to grant the United States access

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The Supreme Court delivered a historic blow to Trump’s tariff agenda, a cornerstone of his economic policy.

In a 6-3 ruling on February 20, the Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. This decision nullifies the sweeping “Liberation Day” duties and reciprocal levies on China, Canada, and Mexico. More than $175 billion in tariff collections are now at risk of refund. Markets rallied on the decision. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%. The President criticized the court’s decision, labelled the justices “fools and lapdogs of foreign interests,” and subsequently announced a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

At the same time, opinions from concurring justices showed they were primarily concerned about the President usurping the power of Congress to levy taxes (i.e. the twin fears of the violation of the separation of power and that of the unchecked imperial presidency).

Here is an extract from Justice Gorsuch’s argument:

Meanwhile, Trump earlier in the week convened the Board of Peace in Washington with $17 billion pledged for Gaza. Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Geneva stalled after Kyiv accused Moscow of dragging out negotiations. US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva produced agreement on “guiding principles” but no deal, as two carrier strike groups patrol nearby waters.

“Stay in your lane!”

In Europe, Macron told Meloni to “stay in her own lane” after the Italian PM called

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Happy Wednesday!

Welcome to this special mid-week edition of Grinfi’s ‘Insights of the Week’ for our dedicated paid subscribers. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

Can China save Cuba from the near economic collapse induced by US sanctions? That question hung over a week shaped by two parallel summits and the demolition of the EPA’s endangerment finding in the U.S.

At the Munich Security Conference, Secretary of State Rubio called for a “new geopolitics and a new century of prosperity” alongside European allies. The tone was warmer than Vance’s combative 2025 speech, but the substance cut the same way. He urged allies to spend more, reform faster, and never minced words in accentuating the Trump administration’s position on the irrelevance of the United Nations.

German Chancellor Merz, opening the conference a day before Rubio spoke, declared that the rules-based order “no longer exists,” revealed nuclear deterrence talks with Macron, and warned that “even the United States will not be powerful enough to do it alone.”

In Addis Ababa, the African Union elected Burundi’s President Ndayishimiye as its 2026 chair and reinforced calls for financial self-reliance as external funding declines.

Meanwhile, Washington gutted the legal foundation for U.S. climate regulation. Trump and EPA Administrator Zeldin repealed the 2009 endangerment finding on February 12, the largest deregulatory action in American history. Five European nations confirmed Russia poisoned Alexei Navalny with dart frog toxin. Bangladesh’s BNP won a landslide election. And markets sold off mid-week as AI disruption

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