Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

“Leave the Kurds alone. We are not guns for hire!” Those words uttered by Iraq’s First Lady Shanaz Ibrahim Ahmed, herself a Kurd, cut through the strategic fog of the US-Israel-Iran war as it enters its third week.

At the moment, Washington is reportedly seeking to arm Iranian Kurdish factions along the Iraq-Iran border to open a ground front, but Kurdish leaders have not forgotten how quickly the United States abandoned their Syrian counterparts in January. This comes as the US is also deploying approximately 2,500 Marines from the Okinawa-based 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and an amphibious assault ship, the USS Tripoli (LHA 7), to the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader military escalation with Iran.

Last Friday, American forces struck military targets on Kharg Island, the chokepoint through which 90% of Iran’s crude exports flow. President Trump announced that he spared the oil facilities but issued an explicit warning that they would be hit next if Iran continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran responded by threatening to strike American-linked oil assets across the Gulf. Brent crude closed the week at $105.66. American gas prices have risen 24% since the war began, to $3.70 per gallon. A fire broke out at Fujairah’s major oil bunkering hub in the UAE on Saturday after Iranian drone debris fell during interception.

Markets delivered their verdict. The S&P; 500 fell to 6,672, its lowest close of 2026 and the third consecutive weekly decline. Japan’s Nikkei shed 3.2%. India’s Sensex dropped 1.9%. The Stoxx 600 has fallen 3.6% since the war began. Revised data confirmed what the sell-off already implied. Fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7%, and core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% YoY.

The American economy is contracting while prices accelerate. The Federal Reserve, which meets on

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The US-Israel-Iran war has entered its 10th day and a new phase. There’s been more strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure. In response, Iran has continued retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases across the Gulf, including attacks on critical water and energy infrastructures. An Iranian strike damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain as well as a fuel storage site in Kuwait. A CNN reporter allowed into Iran to report directly on the situation wrote this about the new phase of the war:

Meanwhile, Mojtaba Khamenei has been named Iran’s new Supreme Leader, succeeding his assassinated father. The cleric, who served as his father’s gatekeeper, fought in the Iran-Iraq War as a member of the Habib ibn Mazahir Battalion, a division of Iran’s paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

He is rarely seen in public and is reportedly tied to some of the most ideologically extreme clerics. He also has direct ties to the IRGC and, although he was considered a frontrunner, he was viewed as the least theological among the candidates considered by the Assembly of Experts. He’s considered the most militarily minded and hardline, with strong connections to the battlefield and pronounced anti-US views.

Israel has vowed to target the new leadership, while Trump called the new leader a “lightweight.” US reported deaths have risen to 8. This comes as the Iranian military is claiming to have captured some US special operations personnel. At the same time, the White House is now saying the operation may be extended by four to six weeks. Oil has risen above $110 a barrel, and the US president has maintained that Americans may have to pay this small price of scarcity in order for the world to be free.

Concurrently, the US State Department has ordered a full evacuation of non-essential personnel from Saudi Arabia following an intensification of Iranian linked attacks that pushed oil prices up dramatically. G7 leaders are now coordinating a joint release of emergency oil reserves to mitigate the risk of a systemic energy shock as Iranian leadership transitions to Mojtaba Khamenei.

US President Trump also appears to be floating the idea of deploying ground troops and is refusing to rule out the possibility of a military draft, a proposal that faces significant domestic opposition among American

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The Middle East is once again in a regional war. This time, the likelihood of a broader global conflict appears higher. However, the question on everyone’s mind as we begin this week is not only about the ongoing war, but also how a few unknown individuals were able to rake in millions through prediction markets by accurately betting on February 28 as the date the U.S. would attack Iran.

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Who’s profiting off war, death, and destruction?

Sources showed that the wallets were freshly created and funded within 24 hours of the strike, with most purchasing "yes" shares on the February 28 contract hours before the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began. Was that mere coincidence or conjecture, or was intelligence shared? Have prediction markets become new platforms for insider trading? How should they be regulated, and do they now represent greater political liabilities and legal risks?

But before that..

Last Saturday, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military airstrikes against Iran in Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several high-ranking officials and family members. The deaths have been confirmed by Iranian state media. However, an Israeli strike on a primary school killed scores of children, with UNESCO labelling the attack ‘a war crime’.

Iran has since launched widespread retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israeli territory and U.S./allied bases across the Gulf. Iranian missiles were also fired toward UK bases in Cyprus, escalating the conflict. This followed the UK government’s decision to grant the United States access

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The Supreme Court delivered a historic blow to Trump’s tariff agenda, a cornerstone of his economic policy.

In a 6-3 ruling on February 20, the Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. This decision nullifies the sweeping “Liberation Day” duties and reciprocal levies on China, Canada, and Mexico. More than $175 billion in tariff collections are now at risk of refund. Markets rallied on the decision. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%. The President criticized the court’s decision, labelled the justices “fools and lapdogs of foreign interests,” and subsequently announced a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

At the same time, opinions from concurring justices showed they were primarily concerned about the President usurping the power of Congress to levy taxes (i.e. the twin fears of the violation of the separation of power and that of the unchecked imperial presidency).

Here is an extract from Justice Gorsuch’s argument:

Meanwhile, Trump earlier in the week convened the Board of Peace in Washington with $17 billion pledged for Gaza. Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Geneva stalled after Kyiv accused Moscow of dragging out negotiations. US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva produced agreement on “guiding principles” but no deal, as two carrier strike groups patrol nearby waters.

“Stay in your lane!”

In Europe, Macron told Meloni to “stay in her own lane” after the Italian PM called

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Happy Wednesday!

Welcome to this special mid-week edition of Grinfi’s ‘Insights of the Week’ for our dedicated paid subscribers. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

Can China save Cuba from the near economic collapse induced by US sanctions? That question hung over a week shaped by two parallel summits and the demolition of the EPA’s endangerment finding in the U.S.

At the Munich Security Conference, Secretary of State Rubio called for a “new geopolitics and a new century of prosperity” alongside European allies. The tone was warmer than Vance’s combative 2025 speech, but the substance cut the same way. He urged allies to spend more, reform faster, and never minced words in accentuating the Trump administration’s position on the irrelevance of the United Nations.

German Chancellor Merz, opening the conference a day before Rubio spoke, declared that the rules-based order “no longer exists,” revealed nuclear deterrence talks with Macron, and warned that “even the United States will not be powerful enough to do it alone.”

In Addis Ababa, the African Union elected Burundi’s President Ndayishimiye as its 2026 chair and reinforced calls for financial self-reliance as external funding declines.

Meanwhile, Washington gutted the legal foundation for U.S. climate regulation. Trump and EPA Administrator Zeldin repealed the 2009 endangerment finding on February 12, the largest deregulatory action in American history. Five European nations confirmed Russia poisoned Alexei Navalny with dart frog toxin. Bangladesh’s BNP won a landslide election. And markets sold off mid-week as AI disruption

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is currently fighting for his political life. His chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and another senior aide, Tim Allan, have resigned after Starmer admitted he was aware of Peter Mandelson’s Epstein ties when appointing him U.S. ambassador. UK 10-year gilt yields rose to 4.55% today as markets price leadership crisis and higher political risk.

About 81 Labour MPs are needed to trigger a leadership election, and it appears that Starmer may not survive until

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

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Tensions between the United States and Iran have sharply escalated following the arrival of US naval armada (the USS Abraham Lincoln) in the Persian Gulf.

Tehran has invoked emergency powers and warned of "full-blown regional war" should US forces initiate strikes. Russia, however, has intervened and offered to mediate talks between the US and Iran. Oil prices rose by 3%, a five-month high, over concerns of possible escalation impacting the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the EU has designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. Iran, in a tit-for-tat response, designated all EU armies as terrorist groups.

At the United Nations, Secretary-General António Guterres is warning that the organization faces an imminent fiscal collapse due to unpaid member contributions.

UN officials estimate the organization could run out of cash by July 2026 if current trends continue. More than $1.57 billion in assessed contributions remain unpaid at the end of 2025, more than double the prior year, threatening peacekeeping, humanitarian, and administrative operations.

At the same time, Indonesia faces a market confidence crisis after MSCI warned last week that the country could be downgraded from emerging-market to frontier-market status. Indonesia has been given until May to demonstrate progress.

In the United States, President Trump has nominated ‘inflation hawk’ Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he will block the nomination until the DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved. Without Tillis, Warsh likely cannot win confirmation. Gold prices fell 5% and silver crashed 10% as markets reacted to the nomination.

Investors view Warsh as a stabilizing choice, which reduced the immediate need for inflation hedges. At the same time, institutional risk remains focused on the US government shutdown and the release of new Epstein documents involving high-profile financial

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The question of whether globalization is in retreat has circulated for years. After last week’s events, the debate pivoted to whether Davos marked the moment and place where it was finally buried. In Davos last week, two competing visions for global governance emerged. One vision, projected by US President Donald Trump, emphasized nationalism and the dismantling of the US-led rule-based global order. The other focused on the vulnerability of middle powers and the importance of cooperation among them, a theme advanced by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

At the same time, the United States released its National Defense Strategy 2026. The government has downgraded China from a threat to a challenge, labelling Beijing as a ‘force to be deterred rather than contained’. It reaffirmed the Donroe Doctrine (Trump’s corollary of the Monroe Doctrine) and placed defense of the U.S. homeland as the top national security priority.

In China, President Xi Jinping intensified a purge of senior military leadership, ordering an investigation into Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. Chinese officials linked the action to concerns over leaks of sensitive security information to hostile forces, as well as political disloyalty, corruption, and toxic influences.

This caps a long-running scheme that has emptied the Central Military Commission, leaving only President Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin, head of the CMC’s anti-corruption body, as active members. For the most part, the focus has been on consolidating control and tightening oversight of military finances. However, the expunging of senior combat-experienced commanders has disrupted command continuity, dishevelled the CMC, and may delay major military actions in the near term.

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has publicly characterized the actions of the United Arab Emirates as a ‘direct security threat’ following prolonged proxy conflicts in Yemen, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa, including UAE’s support for non-state actors that Riyadh says undermines its interests and national security.

In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has used Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass the controversial revenue section of the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote. He survived two no-confidence motions in the process, thanks to a compromise he reached with the Socialists and the reluctance within the Republican party to bring down another government.

Lecornu is expected to take the same approach to pass the expenditure section later

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues that are expected to shape political risk this week.

The Greenland crisis continues to escalate. Some NATO allies, predominantly from the EU, have deployed troops to the territory. Trump has responded with tariffs. Meanwhile, on the domestic front in the U.S, President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minnesota, but later walked it back after several criticisms.

Right now, the DOJ is still actively investigating the governor of Minnesota as well as the mayor of Minneapolis.

Iran’s protest crackdown is intensifying, with reported deaths within the range of 3,400–16,500, as a near total internet blackout remains in place. President Trump earlier threatened military action against Iran before backtracking, but rhetoric escalated again over the weekend. Supreme Leader Khamenei called Trump a ‘criminal’ for encouraging protesters, while Trump responded by urging a ‘new leadership’ in Iran and labelling Khamenei a ‘sick man’. Iranian President Pezeshkian warned that any attempt on Khamenei’s life would trigger an all-out war.

At the same time, the United States has enforced a new immigration crackdown targeting 75 countries. In parallel, the US President has constituted the Board of Peace as part of his 20-point Gaza Peace Plan, appointing members from his inner circle and extending invitations to other leaders, including Milei, Carney, Al Sisi, Erdogan, and Tony Blair.

Trump has appointed himself inaugural Chairman with sole authority to approve membership and decisions, and is now selling seats to interested countries. Under the draft charter, countries or organizations contributing over $1 billion in cash within the first year of the charter’s entry into force would be exempt from the standard three year membership term.

In Europe, France’s budget impasse continues. Prime Minister Lecornu suspended parliamentary debates on Thursday and announced key concessions to the Socialists on Friday to avoid a no confidence vote. He published a letter to business leaders yesterday to reassure them, while justifying a corporate surtax to fund defense spending. He described the measure as a form of economic patriotism (“expression concrète de leur patriotisme”).

Notwithstanding, a decision on whether to invoke Article 49.3 (though unlikely) or use ordinances to pass the 2026 budget is expected later

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues you should know about that are expected to shape political risk this week.

Danish PM Frederiksen warned a US takeover would mean “the end of NATO.” The UK and EU countries are currently discussing plans to deploy NATO troops to Greenland. Secretary Rubio is set to meet Danish FM Rasmussen and Greenlandic FM Motzfeldt this week in Washington.

At the same time, the US government through its embassy in Caracas has issued an urgent warning for its citizens to leave Venezuela immediately, as pro Maduro colectivo militias run haywire, setting up roadblocks to hunt Americans.

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Meanwhile, the Iranian regime is in “survival mode.” At least 116+ are dead and 2,600+ detained in 15 days of protests, as security forces have been overwhelmed and are reportedly retreating from multiple cities. Supreme Leader Khamenei and other members of his circle, according to multiple credible reports, are planning an escape to Moscow if the situation deteriorates and the regime collapses. Prediction markets are pricing regime change by year-end at 56%.

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US Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the crosshairs of the DOJ. The Department of Justice on Friday served grand jury subpoenas on the Federal Reserve, threatening criminal indictment of Chair Powell over disclosures made during his June 2025 congressional testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. Powell insists that the subpoena is an intimidation tactic by the president to subvert central bank independence in order to force his economic will on the Fed.

Bloomberg and other sources are reporting that Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who is believed to be behind

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Good Morning and Happy New Year!

Welcome to the first 2026 edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Give a gift subscription

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues you should know about that are expected to shape political risk this week.

Maduro is in US custody. The Venezuelan president will be arraigned at noon ET today before District Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein in Manhattan on narco-terrorism charges.

US forces captured him in a pre-dawn strike on Caracas on Saturday. At least 80 people were killed during the operation. The UN Security Council is slated to convene at 10:00 AM EST today to discuss the situation. Vice President Rodriguez is now serving as acting president and is reportedly coordinating with Washington, including requesting a full cooperation agenda from the US president, which has raised suspicion that the ouster may have been a backchannel optical move. Secretary Rubio confirmed that the US is in charge of “the direction” of Venezuela and has imposed an oil “quarantine.”

Meanwhile, Indo-Pacific tensions are escalating. China completed live-fire drills around Taiwan involving 89 aircraft and 14 naval vessels simulating port blockades. In parallel, in his New Year’s Eve address, Xi made clear that Taiwan’s reunification with China is ‘unstoppable.’

On Sunday, North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles within a 900–950 km range, which eventually landed in the Sea of Japan outside Japan’s EEZ. Despite regional tensions, South Korean President Lee arrived in Beijing yesterday (January 4) for the first state visit to China since 2019, where he was seen on Chinese State TV reaffirming his country’s commitment to the One China Policy.

At the same time, the Iranian economic crisis is deteriorating. Protests are now in Day 9, with at least 16 dead across 174 locations in 25 provinces. Supreme Leader Khamenei has ordered a crackdown, mandating that rioters ‘be put in their place’. Trump has threatened intervention.

The Speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that US forces in the region would be ‘legitimate targets’ in the event of any intervention.

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Wildcards (60-day probability-weighted impact): (1) Supreme Court IEEPA ruling

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Good Morning!

Welcome to this year-end edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

Read our 2025 Annual Report/Geostrategic Review as you set your priorities for the year ahead. Full access is available to premium and enterprise subscribers, along with other vital political risk resources designed to support and inform your strategic and investment decisions in 2026.

Subscribe now

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are the key issues you should know about that are expected to shape political risk this week.

Overall, two active conflicts that have dominated our reports in recent weeks, Russia-Ukraine and the Thailand-Cambodia wars, showed tentative signs of diplomatic de-escalation over the weekend, although military tensions on the ground remain high and neither process has been fully operationalized.

The Trump-Zelensky meeting yesterday delivered more substance than many expected, with security guarantees reportedly settled (despite other thorny issues) and follow up talks in Washington scheduled for January. In Southeast Asia, the ceasefire appears to be holding for now, but the seventy two (72) hour test period will determine whether it endures. In transatlantic affairs, the United States has imposed visa bans on several European officials over their support for the Digital Services Act, which Washington believes unfairly targets American companies.

Some European officials are now calling for full retaliation.

Pressure is building across the Asia-Pacific region. Japan has just become the world’s third largest defense spender following the approval of a record defense budget for fiscal year 2026. China imposed sanctions on twenty (20) American defense firms over Taiwan’s arms sales. North Korea appears close to launching sea trials for a new submarine. In Taiwan, the opposition has initiated impeachment proceedings against President Lai.

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Meanwhile, the junta-organized elections in Myanmar and Guinea unfolded exactly as anticipated. In Myanmar, there was reportedly a low turnout, contrary to the narrative of the military leadership. In Guinea, Doumbouya is set to secure a seven (7) year mandate. Neither outcome appears poise to strongly alter sanctions exposure or reputational risk for companies in these markets.

Watch this week: Guinea results expected within seventy two (72) hours. Year-end positioning in thin markets. Bulgaria adopts the euro January 1. January catalysts include: Myanmar Phase 2 (January 11), the Yoon verdict in Seoul (January 16), and Washington peace talks on Ukraine, among others.

Another critical development emerged from the Horn of Africa, placing the region firmly on our risk radar. Israel recognized Somaliland on Friday (December 26),

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Good Morning! Happy Holidays from Grinfi Consulting!

Welcome to this Pre-Christmas edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before moving on to the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Here are six key issues you should know about that are expected to shape political risk this week.

1. Ukraine peace talks enter a critical phase. U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian negotiators concluded “constructive” talks in Miami over the weekend, but the Kremlin rejected European amendments to the proposed deal.

All eyes are expectantly on signals as to whether full-on trilateral talks (U.S.-Ukraine-Russia) will proceed. Any breakthrough would reshape European defense spending, sanctions policy, and energy markets.

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2. BOJ rate hike fallout will test global markets. Japan’s rate increase to 0.75% (highest since 1995) sent 10-year JGB yields above 2% for the first time since 1999.

This week will reveal whether yen carry trade unwinds accelerate. German 30-year yields already hit 2011 highs on repatriation fears. Currency markets are likely to remain volatile.

3. Trump’s Venezuela blockade faces its first enforcement test. With 11 Navy ships deployed, the “total and complete blockade” of Venezuelan oil tankers announced December 16 is now being enforced. Some sanctioned vessels have already diverted. China has backed Maduro. Watch for the first interdiction and Beijing’s response.

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4. France and EU trade policy face critical tests. French lawmakers failed to agree on a 2026 budget on December 19, forcing a potential rollover of 2025 spending and raising deficit concerns. The EU-Mercosur trade deal was delayed to January after farmer protests and French-Italian opposition. Both issues continue to compound European political and market risks.

5. Holiday-shortened markets increase volatility risk. Thin liquidity from Christmas Eve through Boxing Day is likely to amplify price swings. Key data drops today (U.K. GDP and China’s commercial bank loan prime rate decision), Tuesday (U.S. GDP, durable goods) and Friday (Japan Tokyo CPI). Year-end positioning could exaggerate moves in currencies and rates.

6. Thailand set for snap general elections. Thailand will hold a snap general election on February 8, 2026, after Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved parliament last week due to rising political pressures and the threat of a no confidence vote. The Election Commission has set candidate registration for

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Good Morning! Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before diving into the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Four things really matter this week. First, Thailand and Cambodia are at war. The Trump brokered ceasefire collapsed. Airstrikes and ground troops have led to over 600,000 displaced civilians. Fighting has continued despite claims by the U.S. President on Truth Social last week that all hostilities had ceased and a new ceasefire had been agreed upon.

All land border crossings have been closed, and Thailand has announced a curfew in its Trat province.

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Second, central banks are moving in opposite directions. Last week, the Fed cut rates but signaled a pause. The Bank of Japan is set to raise rates to the highest level since 1995. The Bank of England is expected to cut, while the European Central Bank (ECB) holds.

Third, Chile elected Jose Antonio Kast president with 58% of the vote, marking the country’s sharpest rightward shift since democracy returned.

Fourth, Australia became the first country to ban social media for

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Good Morning! Welcome to this week’s edition of Grinfi Political Risk Edge, your trusted source for expert political risk analysis and strategic intelligence. Thorough, insightful, and industry-focused. We deliver clarity in uncertainty and strength in decision-making. Anticipate, Adapt, and Excel!

But first, let’s begin the week with a laugh 😄 to brighten the mood. Remember, a little humor never hurts before diving into the serious stuff.

Humor of the Week

From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

“At Grinfi, we track immediate fragility and systemic contagion to ensure leaders see risks before they spread.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The United States is touting a new Monroe Doctrine and has questioned Europe’s long term stability and the future of the transatlantic partnership in its newly released National Security Strategy.

Russia has intensified its winter strikes on Ukraine’s power and transport networks, as Putin rejects a US brokered peace deal.

The European Union has issued its first major Digital Services Act penalty, imposing a substantial multimillion euro fine on X, which led Musk over the weekend to call for the dissolution of the European Union as the bloc moves into a stricter enforcement phase.

At the same time, French President Macron has warned China that the EU might consider levying potential tarriff over persistent trade surpluses.

West and Central Africa are experiencing rising instability and uncertainties as the coup and development cascades continue, with a failed coup attempt in Benin, Sweden’s decision to close its embassy in Liberia and slash bilateral development aid, and new security threats in

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From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Last week, several strategic events materially altered the global risk outlook with direct consequences for security, markets, and regulation. Based on these and other consequential evolving trends, here are the core signals to watch this week:

“At Grinfi, we track immediate/direct fragility and systemic contagion (cascading effect), ensuring leaders see risks before they spread.”

In the United States, President Trump is escalating pressure on Venezuela, publicly announcing the closure of the country’s airspace under Operation Southern Spear and warning airlines to reroute.

Although the decision clearly lacks international legitimacy and violates Venezuela’s sovereign territorial rights, the president’s foreign policy announcement via social media disrupted regional aviation according to flight tracking data. It also drew widespread domestic and international criticism, even though no military action has yet been carried out.

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve? Trump has intimated that he’s already decided his preferred candidate, though no name has been announced.

All attention seem to be on Kevin Hessett, chair of the National Economic Council who is in lockstep

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From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Last week, several strategic events materially altered the global risk outlook with direct consequences for security, markets, and regulation. They also provide vital signals on the key pressure points to watch this week.

“At Grinfi, we track immediate/direct fragility and systemic contagion (cascading effect), ensuring leaders see risks before they spread.”

In the United States, President Trump ended his 40% tariffs on some Brazilian food products on November 20, reversing measures imposed in July. The change applies to imports arriving after November 13 and could trigger refunds for duties already collected. Brazil supplies about one third (1/3) of the coffee consumed in the U.S. and has become a major source of beef for American buyers.

At the same time, Trump is using the tariff reversal to show action on affordability as household costs rise. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that earlier tariff rollbacks have already removed about $800 billion in projected debt reduction. This comes as the Supreme Court appears to signal doubts about Trump’s legal authority to issue broad tariff orders, with several justices questioning whether the actions fall outside the powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Meanwhile, Congress passed a bill early last week ordering the Justice Department to release all Jeffrey Epstein files within 30 days. The president has already signed it. Some of those formerly in the president’s close circle who championed the bill, to the president’s chagrin, are now experiencing a fallout. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, being one of those, appears to have drawn the president’s ire after he openly called her a traitor, and she announced she will resign next year amid tensions with the administration.

Trump also met New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani for the first time since months of public clashes, in what has been observed as a new dawn in lowering the rising temperature in America’s affectively polarized cross-party democratic politics.

Currently, the administration is weighing military options in Venezuela as U.S. forces expand “Operation Southern Spear.” More than 15,000 troops, over a dozen warships and significant air assets are now positioned in the region, including the USS Gerald R. Ford. Estimates suggest the U.S. has at least 185 Tomahawk missiles ready, and strikes since September have already killed more than 83 people. In parallel, the Venezuelan president, in a radical twist over the weekend, appears to be turning to religion in a last-minute appeal, announcing that he had turned over the country to Jesus to defend it against Trump’s attacks and potential invasion.

On the domestic front, Trump also indicated his intention to end temporary protection status (TPS) for Somali migrants in Minnesota, alleging that Somali groups are involved in financial

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From Grinfi Political Risk Observatory (GPRO), here’s what we’re monitoring:

High Impact Situational Updates

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Last week, several strategic events materially altered the global risk outlook with direct consequences for security, markets, and regulation, and now signal the key pressure points to watch this week.

“At Grinfi, we track immediate/direct fragility and systemic contagion (cascading effect), ensuring leaders see risks before they spread.”

In the United States, the Trump administration rolled back some tariffs on beef, coffee, and a wide range of tropical fruits to lower food prices as inflation stubbornly continues to remain a political liability. In addition, the government has also reached new framework agreements with Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador to expand access to other imported agricultural products and ease additional cost pressures.

Meanwhile, President Trump has abruptly reversed his position and is now urging Republicans to vote this week in favor of releasing the Epstein files. His shift comes as most Republicans in Congress appear determined to proceed with the release despite his earlier request to halt it. Trump has said he has nothing to hide, and frankly doesn’t care either. He wrote the following on Truth Social:

At the same time, the Justice Department launched a new Scam Center Strike Force to target cryptocurrency-fraud networks operating from scam compounds in Southeast Asia. The online fraud problem has grown into one of the most damaging financial-crime threats facing U.S. consumers. Americans lost over $10 billion to Southeast Asian scam operations in 2024 alone according to ChainAnalysis Research, a 66% increase year-over-year. At the moment, the Strike Force has already seized about $401

End of Free Briefing

Become a paid subscriber today to gain complete and unrestricted access to the full briefing with detailed strategic takeaways, sector-specific action roadmaps, board-ready guidance (“What to Tell Your Investors or Board this Week”), and our comprehensive market summary, as well as the exclusive France-special section: L’observatoire Decisif...

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